By Xu Haiyun
许海云
Nearly a year after Finland and Sweden jointly applied to join NATO, Finland has become NATO's newest member not long ago, while Sweden remains uncertain. As NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, Finland is the country that joined NATO in the shortest time in history. But at the same time, Sweden is very likely to become the most difficult in history to join NATO. This kind of contradiction has not only become a prominent feature of NATO's northward expansion but also indicates that its northward expansion will inevitably bring serious consequences.
在芬兰和瑞典联手向北约提出入约申请近一年后，芬兰前不久已正式加入北约，瑞典则尚存变数。正如北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格所说，芬兰是历史上用时最短加入北约的国家。但与此同时，瑞典极有可能成为历史上最费周折加入北约的国家。这种矛盾不仅成为北约“北扩”的一个显著特征，也预示着“北扩”必将带来严重后果。
Abandoning neutrality stems from multiple considerations
放弃中立，源于多重考量
After the end of the Cold War, the US and NATO began to actively promote extreme unilateral hegemonic policies and ideological diplomacy. They sought to establish a "de-Russification" new European order and were obsessed with maintaining the international order based on Western hegemony rules. NATO's northward expansion is a concrete manifestation of the above-mentioned ideas. The accession to the treaty seems to be the wish of Finland and Sweden, but the root cause lies in NATO's long-term policy of "de-Russification" in European security construction. In fact, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is also a chain reaction triggered by this policy.
冷战结束后，美国与北约积极推进极端的单边霸权政策与意识形态外交，谋求建立“去俄罗斯化”的欧洲新秩序，醉心于维系基于西方霸权规则的国际秩序，北约“北扩”就是上述理念的具体表现。入约看似出自芬兰与瑞典两国所愿，但根源还在于北约在欧洲安全建构中长期奉行的“去俄罗斯化”政策。实际上，俄乌冲突也是该政策引发的连锁反应。
On the one hand, the reason why Finland and Sweden chose to join NATO is to maximize their own security interests and seek NATO's protection in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, the reality is not that simple. Russia has repeatedly stressed that special military operations against Ukraine are limited and will not affect Northern Europe after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Therefore, rather than saying that Finland and Sweden insist on joining NATO to avoid risks, it is better to say that the two countries are trying to satisfy NATO's so-called political correctness proposition and create an atmosphere of "together against Russia" among European countries. On the other hand, NATO's push for Finland and Sweden to join the treaty is not only to expand the political momentum of the anti-Russia camp in the West but also to gain a greater strength advantage in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, this practice of continuously expanding the conflict front is tantamount to taking risks and will only complicate the security situation in Europe.
一方面，芬兰与瑞典加入北约，表面上看是要争取自身安全利益最大化，在俄乌冲突中寻求北约的保护，然而事实却并非如此简单。俄乌冲突爆发后，俄罗斯一再强调针对乌克兰的特别军事行动是有限的，不会波及北欧。因此，与其说芬兰与瑞典执意加入北约意在避祸，毋宁说两国是为了满足北约所谓的“政治正确”主张，营造欧洲国家“同心抗俄”的氛围。另一方面，北约推动芬兰和瑞典入约，既是为了扩大西方反俄阵营的政治声势，也是为了在俄乌冲突中赢得更大的力量优势。但是，这种不断扩大冲突阵线的做法，无异于铤而走险，只会使欧洲安全形势更加复杂。
Each has its own demands and faces real difficulties
各有诉求，面临现实困境
At present, the US and NATO seem to have the strategic advantage of leading the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but in fact, they do not. Affected by the spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US and NATO are paying a heavy price for the so-called political correctness. For example, many NATO member states have experienced stagnant economic development, constant public protests, and intensified political confrontation. In the view of some NATO member states, the joining of Finland and Sweden will not help alleviate the multiple realities that NATO is currently facing and will only intensify Russia's military countermeasures. This is why some NATO member states are not interested in accepting Finland and Sweden. Many European countries and their people are worried about NATO's continuous expansion of the anti-Russia camp, especially NATO's blind pursuit of eastward expansion or even northward expansion, will trigger Russia's increasingly drastic countermeasures.
目前，美国与北约看似拥有主导俄乌冲突的战略优势，实则不然。受俄乌冲突外溢效应影响，美国与北约正在为所谓的“政治正确”付出沉重代价，例如北约许多成员国纷纷出现经济发展停滞、民众抗议不断、政治对立加剧等情况。在北约一些成员国看来，芬兰与瑞典加入北约，无助于缓解北约当前面临的多重现实困境，只会加剧俄罗斯的军事反制力度，这正是一些成员国对北约接纳芬兰与瑞典缺乏兴趣的原因所在。欧洲多国及其民众对北约不断扩大反俄阵营感到担忧，特别是对北约一味追求东扩乃至“北扩”，进而引发俄罗斯越来越激烈的反制措施深感不安。
Joining NATO also means that Finland and Sweden will further deepen their strategic dependence on the US and NATO, which runs counter to the European strategic autonomy advocated by "old European" countries such as France. In addition, Finland and Sweden chose to join NATO at the sensitive moment of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which will inevitably lead to hostility with Russia. The long-standing neutral status of the two countries in history has been changed. The two also became the strategic frontier of NATO's confrontation against Russia and they will face enormous political and military pressure.
加入北约，还意味着芬兰与瑞典会进一步加深对美国和北约的战略依赖，这与法国等“老欧洲”国家所主张的欧洲战略自主背道而驰。此外，芬兰与瑞典选择在俄乌冲突这一敏感时刻加入北约，必将导致与俄交恶。两国在历史上长期保持的中立地位不仅被改变，而且还成为北约对阵俄罗斯的战略前沿，为此将承受巨大的政治与军事压力。
Intensifying the confrontation affects the security trend
加剧对立，影响安全走势
The joining of Finland and Sweden will directly lead to major changes in the Nordic security environment. After Sweden joins NATO, all the Nordic countries will become NATO member states, and Russia will have to face NATO's encirclement from Northern Europe, Central Europe, and Southern Europe, and its strategic security environment will become more precarious. In this case, Russia's countermeasures will also become tougher. By then, the security situation in Northern Europe, the Baltic Sea, and the North Sea will become increasingly tense, and the strategic competition between Russia and NATO around the Arctic and its adjacent navigation channels will also intensify.
芬兰与瑞典加入北约，会直接导致北欧安全环境发生重大变化。瑞典加入北约后，北欧国家将被悉数纳入北约，俄罗斯不得不面对北约从北欧﹑中欧以及南欧等多个方向构筑的环形包围，其战略安全环境将会变得更加险峻。在这种情况下，俄方反制措施也将变得更加强硬。届时，北欧﹑波罗的海﹑北海等安全形势会日趋紧张，俄罗斯与北约围绕北极及其附近航海通道的战略争夺也会愈演愈烈。
Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO will worsen the political and security atmosphere in Europe and will also intensify the confrontation between NATO and Russia, which will lead to faults in the European security architecture. First, the grey area of European geopolitics is decreasing. Europe will not only show the trend of forming camps but will also increase competition and confrontation marked by ideology. The strategic confrontation between NATO and Russia will be in full swing, and the geopolitical competition in Europe will continue to intensify. Second, the European security ecosystem will split and lead to fragmentation. There will be more and more conflicts and disputes between the US and Europe, different parts of Europe, and NATO member states. Even within the various European nation-states, the number of disputes and the level of intensity will continue to increase among different interest groups, social classes, political parties, and government agencies.
芬兰与瑞典加入北约，在恶化欧洲政治与安全氛围的同时，还将加剧北约与俄罗斯的对立，进而导致欧洲安全架构出现断层。其一，欧洲地缘政治的“灰色地带”正在减少，欧洲不仅会呈现“集团化”或“阵营化”趋势，还会增加以意识形态为标识的竞争与对抗。北约与俄罗斯的战略对抗会全面展开，欧洲地缘政治竞争会持续加剧。其二，欧洲安全生态体系将会发生分裂，进而出现碎片化趋势。在美欧双方﹑欧洲不同板块以及北约各成员国之间，矛盾与纠纷会越来越多。甚至在欧洲各个民族国家内部，不同利益集团﹑社会阶层﹑政党以及政府机构之间的纷争，也会随之增多，且烈度会不断加剧。
It is foreseeable that with NATO's northward expansion as the trigger, the contradictions, competitions and confrontations within Europe will exist for a long time, and may continue to intensify, which will lead to a more complicated and severe situation.
可以预见，以北约“北扩”为导火索，欧洲内部的矛盾﹑竞争以及对抗将会长期存在，而且可能持续激化，造成更加复杂严峻的局面。
(The author is a professor at the Department of History, Renmin University of China)
（作者系中国人民大学历史学院教授）
