韩国总统尹锡悦日前赴美国访问做演讲时表示，“韩国可以在一年内拥有完整的核武器生产链”。作为《不扩散核武器条约》的签署国，韩国总统尹锡悦的言论引发广泛关注。
In the speech during his visit to the US recently, ROK President Yoon Suk-yeol said that "if the Republic of Korea were to decide to arm itself with nuclear weapons, we have the technical foundation to do so within a short period of time, even within a year." As the head of a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), Yoon Suk-yeol's remarks have aroused widespread concern.
韩国总统尹锡悦（来源：环球网）
ROK President Yoon Suk-yeol. (Source: huanqiu.com)
前不久，尹锡悦与美国达成一份成果文件《华盛顿宣言》，而这一协议的基础就是韩国同意不发展核武器。对于尹锡悦很快就再度提出“韩国可以在一年内拥有核武器”的矛盾行为，军事评论员金一南认为，不能简单地把尹锡悦的拥核言论理解为“政客作秀”或者是为了争取选票。
Not long ago, Yoon Suk-yeol reached an outcome document, the Washington Declaration, with the US. The foundation of this agreement is that the ROK agreed not to develop nuclear weapons. Regarding Yoon's contradictory behavior of quickly proposing the idea of possessing nuclear weapons within a year, military expert Jin Yinan believes that Yoon Suk-yeol's statement should not be simply interpreted as just a political showmanship or an attempt to gain votes.
金一南表示，尹锡悦的拥核言论让《华盛顿宣言》的虚伪本质暴露无遗。《华盛顿宣言》表面上承诺半岛无核化，但实质上，目前美国基本确定将长期在朝鲜半岛的韩国方向部署战略核潜艇。如果没有得到美国的同意或默许，尹锡悦根本不敢在刚刚与美国签完协议之后，便宣布“韩国可以在一年内拥有核武器”。尹锡悦的拥核言论是在美国默许之下的一种表态，这是一个非常危险的行为。它所造成的负面影响，完全超出了美韩靠近韩朝军事分界线的联合军演。韩国要拥核，必将给半岛带来巨大的政治和军事冲击。
Jin says that Yoon's statement exposes the hypocritical nature of the Washington Declaration. While the declaration ostensibly promises denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the US has already made plans to deploy strategic nuclear submarines in the ROK for the long term. Without the consent or tacit approval of the US, Yoon would not to declare the possession of nuclear weapons within a year immediately after signing the agreement. It is a dangerous sign that Yoon made such statement with the tacit approval of the US, whose negative impact is completely beyond the joint military exercise between the US and the ROK close to the military demarcation line. If Seoul wants to possess nuclear weapons, the Korean Peninsula will face huge political and military impact.
目前，俄乌冲突尚在进行，乌克兰为何会陷入今天这样的困境？美国著名战略问题专家基辛格和布热津斯基此前曾分析说，乌克兰的出路在于乌克兰的中立化。但乌克兰领导人执意要求加入北约，北约也同意接收乌克兰，这对俄罗斯形成了“桥头堡的威胁”，最终导致俄乌冲突爆发。尹锡悦拥核言论的危险性在于，韩国目前的选择与乌克兰的行为颇有相似之处。可以说，尹锡悦抛弃了历任韩国总统所秉承的“核问题中立化”立场。此前，历届韩国总统力图改善与朝鲜的关系，以缓和半岛局势，而尹锡悦现在却反其道而行之。
Speaking of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, US strategic experts analyzed that Ukraine's way out lies in its neutrality. However, Ukrainian leaders insisted on joining NATO, and NATO agreed to accept Ukraine, which posed a bridgehead threat to Russia and ultimately led to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The danger of Yoon's nuclear remarks lies in the fact that Seoul's current choices bear some resemblance to Ukraine's actions. It can be said that Yoon has abandoned the stance of neutrality on the nuclear issue upheld by previous presidents. Previously, ROK presidents sought to improve relations with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula, but Yoon is now taking a different approach.
众所周知，尹锡悦上台以后，抛弃了历任韩国总统所秉承的“核问题中立化”立场，完全追随美国的战略安排，极力迎合美国的战略部署，甚至主动迎合日本的意愿，把韩国当作一个“桥头堡”，与朝鲜对抗，与中国对抗。在美韩两国签署的《华盛顿宣言》中，他们在台海问题、台湾问题上说三道四。韩国以前的历届总统从未做过这样的表态，可是如今尹锡悦却公开进行干涉。所以，不能简单地把尹锡悦的拥核言论理解为是一个“政客作秀”，这是他所设想的韩国未来的战略发展方向，而这将给未来的韩国带来极大的灾难。
Yoon abandoned the stance of neutrality on the nuclear issue upheld by previous ROK presidents and has fully aligned with the strategic arrangements of the US, vigorously catered to the strategic deployments of the US, and even actively accommodated the desires of Japan and used the ROK as a bridgehead to confront both the DPRK and China. In the Washington Declaration signed between the US and the ROK, they made irresponsible statements regarding the situation in the Taiwan Strait and the Taiwan question. Previous ROK presidents have never made such statements, but Yoon openly interferes in these matters. Therefore, it is not simply a matter of dismissing Yoon's pro-nuclear remarks as political posturing. Instead, this represents his envisioned strategic development direction for the future of the ROK, which could bring about great disaster for the country.
韩国“玄武-3”巡航导弹理论上具备携带小型核弹头的潜力（来源：环球网）
ROK Hyunmoo-3 cruise missile theoretically has the potential to carry a small nuclear warhead. (Source: huanqiu.com)
目前，韩国可投射核武器的能力在逐步提升。韩国首尔大学原子核工程系名誉教授徐均烈宣称，“韩国已经掌握了拥核国家水平的使用后核燃料棒再处理、浓缩技术，只要韩国政府作出决断，可在6个月内制造出爆炸当量2万吨TNT的核弹。”对此，金一南认为，韩国达成拥核目标的关键并不在韩国自身，而在美国。
Currently, Seoul's capability to deploy nuclear weapons is gradually increasing. Suh Kune-yull, a professor emeritus of Nuclear Energy System Engineering at Seoul National University, claimed that Seoul has acquired the capability to handle spent nuclear fuel rods and enrichment technology at the level of nuclear-armed states. They could produce a nuclear bomb with an explosive yield of 20,000 tons of TNT within six months with a decisive decision from the government. In response to this, Jin believes that the key to the ROK achieving its nuclear goals does not lie with the ROK itself but with the US.
2009年，时任美国总统奥巴马在捷克首都布拉格发表演说，提出“无核世界”的倡议，呼吁建立没有核武器的世界，这曾给世人带来短暂的鼓舞，奥巴马也曾经获得诺贝尔和平奖。但后来，美国并未真正履行“无核世界”的承诺，反而首先带头进行核扩散，最典型的例子就是美英澳签署“奥库斯”协议。根据协议，美英两国共同向澳大利亚扩散战略核潜艇技术、核反应堆技术，以及制造核武器的技术。金一南分析，尹锡悦发表拥核言论后美国一声不吭，既不反对也不制止。
In 2009, then-US President Barack Obama delivered a speech in Prague, the capital of the Czech Republic and proposed the initiative of a "world without nuclear weapons". This brought temporary inspiration to the world, and Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. However, the US did not truly fulfill its commitment to a "world without nuclear weapons" and instead, took the lead in nuclear proliferation. The most notable example is the AUKUS agreement signed between the US, UK, and Australia. According to the agreement, the US and UK will jointly transfer strategic nuclear submarine technology, nuclear reactor technology, and technology for manufacturing nuclear weapons to Australia. Jin analyzes that after Yoon made his nuclear remarks, the US remained silent, neither opposing nor stopping it.
韩国最终是否拥核，目前看来与尹锡悦的意愿无关，与韩国的能力也无关，应该是国际政治、周边安全和大国博弈的结果。但现在尹锡悦政府完全单边投靠美国，只会使韩国掌握自己命运、决定自己道路的可能性和空间越来越小。
Whether the ROK eventually possesses nuclear weapons is a complex issue that involves international politics, regional security, and the dynamics of major powers. It is not determined by Yoon's intentions or Seoul's capabilities. However, the Yoon Suk-yeol government heavily leans towards the US, which will only limit Seoul's possibilities and space to determine its own destiny and path.
Editor's note: Originally published on military.cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
