海镜
By Hai Jing
近日，刚加入北约不久的芬兰，又迅速与美国达成一项双边防务协议，允许美国在芬兰领土上部署军队、储存军事物资和开展训练活动。有媒体披露，2023年将有约5000名美军进驻芬兰。
Finland, a new member state of NATO, has recently moved quickly to conclude a bilateral defense agreement with the US that authorizes the latter to implement military deployment, military supply storage and training activities on its land. Some media disclosed that around 5,000 US soldiers will be stationed in Finland in 2023.
这一消息在国际社会引起广泛关注和诸多质疑，更引发了对美俄对抗升级的担忧。美军一旦进驻芬兰，将对俄罗斯的安全环境造成直接且严重的冲击。
This piece of news has aroused wide attention and numerous doubts in the international community and triggered concerns about the escalation of the US-Russian confrontation. The garrison of the US military in Finland will bring about direct and devastating impacts on the security environment of Russia.
一是，美国将更方便地获得和利用芬兰的军事资源。芬兰作为北欧军事强国，近年来一直致力于加强与北约的军事合作关系，正式加入北约前后更是动作频频。从确定引进以色列“大卫投石索”防空反导系统，到斥巨资购买美制F-35战斗机，并与丹麦、挪威和瑞典共同组建以约250架现代化战斗机为骨干的“北欧防空联盟”，芬兰军队正不断深度融入北约的作战体系。接纳美军进驻，意味着芬兰与美国的军事“捆绑”将更加紧密。
First, the US will have easier access to the military resources of Finland. As a military powerhouse in northern Europe, Finland has been committed to reinforcing military cooperation with NATO in recent years, acting more vigorously during the time period before and after formally joining NATO. From the decision to introduce Israel's "David Sling" air and missile defense (AMD) system, to the huge investment in purchase of US-made F-35 fighter jets, and to the joint establishment of Nordic air defense alliance pivoted by about 250 modern fighters with Denmark, Norway and Sweden, Finland is deeply integrating its military force into the combat system of NATO. The acceptance of the US garrison signifies that Finland will be more closely tied with the US in military.
二是，美军将充分利用芬兰的地缘价值对俄施压。芬兰是与俄罗斯拥有最长陆地边界的北约国家，距俄第二大城市圣彼得堡的直线距离不到200公里。美军进驻芬兰后，俄罗斯从科拉半岛到圣彼得堡的边防压力将急剧攀升，巴伦支海沿岸的俄海空核力量也将受美军深度监控。随着芬兰湾和波罗的海基本成为北约的“内海”，驻芬美军将直接威胁到俄本土与加里宁格勒的海空通航，这块“飞地”也将越发“孤悬海外”。
Second, the US military will take full advantage of Finland's geographical value to clamp down on Russia. Finland is the NATO member state with the longest land border with Russia, with a straight-line distance of less than 200 kilometers from Russia's second-largest city St. Petersburg. The US garrison in Finland will dramatically elevate the defense pressure on Russia's borderline from the Kola Peninsula to St. Petersburg and put the Russian naval and air nuclear forces along the Barents Sea under deep surveillance of the US military. As the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea have basically become the "inland sea" of NATO, the presence of US troops in Finland will directly threaten the sea and air navigation between the Russian mainland and Kaliningrad, making this "exclave" more and more isolated.
三是，地区战略形势将对俄罗斯更为不利。目前，美国已与多个欧洲国家签署允许美军进驻的防务合作协议。随着与芬兰的协议落地，美国再次扩大了在欧洲的军事和政治影响力。美国及北约对俄罗斯的包围圈正加紧合拢。
Third, the regional strategic situation will get more unfavorable to Russia. The US has signed defense cooperation agreements for military garrison with multiple European countries. The deal with Finland will further extend US' military and political influences in Europe. The US and NATO encirclement of Russia is converging at an accelerated pace.
就美国对俄战略遏制举措而言，这只是开始。美国正“得寸进尺”，不仅游说和鼓噪在芬兰部署核武器，还力推北约修订针对俄罗斯的“前沿防卫”战略，打算在北约东翼“设置更多防空反导系统、长期驻扎更大规模的部队”，从而加大对俄的围堵威慑。
As far as US strategic containment on Russia is concerned, this is just the beginning. The US is not only lobbying and clamoring for the deployment of nuclear weapons in Finland but also devouringly pushing NATO to revise its "forward defense" strategy against Russia, in an attempt to set up more air and missile defense systems and station a larger scale of troops regularly on the eastern flank of NATO for strengthened besiegement and deterrence against Russia.
芬兰加入北约并接纳美军，堪称欧洲地缘政治的一次剧变。美国不断打着“和平计划”“安全保障”的幌子，堂而皇之地大搞军事扩张乃至核扩散的勾当。面对地缘安全环境的急剧恶化，俄罗斯很可能采取更强硬的行动予以反制。长期和平发展的芬兰，已沦为美俄对抗的前沿。可以预见，未来美军带给芬兰的绝不是安全，而是层出不穷的军事对峙乃至危机。
Finland's entry into NATO and acceptance of US troops represent an upheaval of European geopolitics. Under the guise of "peace plans" and "security guarantee", the US has been engaging in military expansion and even nuclear proliferation actions in an imposing manner. Confronting a dramatically deteriorated geo-political environment, Russia is probably to counter back with tougher moves. Finland, a country that has long enjoyed peaceful development, has become the front line of the US-Russian confrontation. It can be predicted that the US forces will not bring security to Finland for sure, but invite endless military confrontations and even crises in the future.
