By Chen Youjun
陈友骏
Japan's Upper House on June 16 passed into law a bill for creating a pool of funds to cover the massive increase for Japan's plan to spend a combined 43 trillion yen ($305 billion) defense expenditures through fiscal 2027, but the funding sources remained uncertain. Such a rash advance in Japan's military expansion sent important signals.
日本国会参议院16日通过“防卫费财源特别措施法案”，使其正式成为法律。该法主要内容包括创设“防卫力强化资金”，把列入2023年度预算的4.5919万亿日元（约合2334亿元人民币）税外收入跨多个年度用作防卫费。日本在扩军路上又往前冒进一步，背后折射出一些重要信息。
To realize its strategic vision of becoming a "normal state" in the post-war era, the conservative political forces in Japan are actively hyping the ongoing friction between China and the US, regarding it as a strategic opportunity for Japan. They continue to adjust traditional strategies, and consider the Japan-US alliance as the primary ballast for expanding Japan's external exchanges and even maintaining its national security, intending to make breakthroughs in fields like diplomacy and security, of which realizing major breakthroughs in military expansion is considered one of the primary political tasks.
为了实现战后“正常国家”的战略设想，日本国内政治保守势力正疯狂炒作中美博弈大背景，将中美博弈视为“战略机遇”，不断调整传统策略，将日美同盟视为日本扩大对外交往甚至是确保国家安全的首要依托，并制定了所谓“勤作为、多作为、广作为、善作为”的日美同盟新方针，意图实现日本在外交及安全等领域的突破。其中，实现扩军的重大突破就被视为首要政治任务之一。
At the same time, the Kishida administration constantly caters to the demand of domestic political conservatives to maintain and stabilize the ruling position. Facing the pressure from the opposition parties and dissenters in the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP), Kishida must earn as much support as possible from the conservatives, which, after all, represent the mainstream voice in the Japanese political arena. The adoption of the special law to secure funds for defense spending is considered a political gift presented by the Kishida administration to them.
与此同时，岸田政府不断迎合国内政治保守势力的要求，以维持和稳定执政地位。面对在野党及自民党内反对势力的施压，岸田一直寄望于解散众议院重新举行大选来巩固或维持自己的首相一职，为此，岸田必须尽可能赢得政治保守势力的支持，毕竟后者是垄断当前日本政界的主要声音。这次“防卫费财源特别措施法案”的通过，被视为岸田政府向国内保守势力的“政治献礼”。
However, the law contains flaws and poses risks for the Kishida administration. For instance, it doesn't clarify the important matters such as a specific schedule for raising taxes, which are expected to be a major source of funds for increased defense spending in the future.
然而，对于岸田政府而言，这份“防卫费财源特别措施法案”仍存诸多缺陷和风险，比如并未包含政府具体的增税实施时间等重要内容，而这一新增税收将是未来日本扩大防卫支出的重要财源之一。
The ruling LDP has basically reached an internal consensus on this issue. However, its proposal of delaying the implementation of the plan from the original 2024 to 2025 or later was still rejected by opposition parties. In fact, both the ruling coalition and opposition parties are worried about the prospects of Japan's economic recovery. In spite of positive signs in recent months, the recovery of the Japanese economy faces constraints of many internal and external factors, lacking a solid foundation and a bright future due to the impact of uncertainties arising from the escalating China-US friction as well as the gloomy regional and global landscapes.
执政的自民党内部对此已经达成基本共识，即希望将这一重要时点由原计划的“2024年之后”暂时延迟一年至“2025年之后”，但仍遭在野党纷纷反对。实际上，无论执政的自民党还是表示强烈反对的在野党，均对当前正处于复苏进程中的日本经济较为担忧。虽然近几个月表现出了一定向好势头，但在中美博弈加剧、地区及全球局势发展的不确定性等因素影响下，日本经济复苏仍然受到内外环境诸多制约，基础较为薄弱，前景仍不明朗。
In a nutshell, the adoption and enactment of the law to create a pool of funds to cover part of a substantial increase in defense spending is undoubtedly a noteworthy milestone on Japan's road of military expansion and self military deregulation. For Japan, raising funds for defense spending will create new pressure and potential debt risks in its treasury bond market and bring about many other negative effects on the economy. For the international community and Japan's neighboring countries, the right-wing and conservative forces in Japan will continue taking reckless steps to break the "exclusively defense-oriented policy" and gain self-motivation. This trend is worth vigilance.
综上所述，“防卫费财源特别措施法案”的通过和生效，无疑是日本扩军和自我军事松绑道路上一个值得注意的节点。对日本国内而言，募集防卫资金为日本国债市场带来新的压力以及潜在偿债风险，并可能衍生出其他许多潜在的负面经济效应；而对国际社会尤其是日本周边国家而言，日本国内右翼保守势力继续向着突破“专守防卫”冒进并且不断以此自我鼓励，这种趋势只会引起更多警视。
(The author is a research fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.)
（作者是上海国际问题研究院研究员）
Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
