By Ding Long
丁隆
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken ended his ninth trip to the Middle East since October last year and returned to Washington empty-handed on August 20. The next day, US President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the phone and stressed the urgent need to reach an agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages. However, even the US media admitted that their "last-ditch effort" to promote a ceasefire in Gaza had yielded nothing. Various signs indicate that currently there is no possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza, and the situation in the Middle East remains precarious.
8月20日，美国国务卿布林肯结束了其自去年10月以来的第九次中东之行，“两手空空”返回华盛顿；总统拜登次日同以色列总理内塔尼亚胡通电话，强调迫切需要达成加沙停火和释放人质的协议。但连美媒都承认，他们为促成加沙停火所做出的“最后一搏”一无所获。种种迹象表明，目前加沙局势中没有展现出任何停火可能，中东地区形势岌岌可危。
Multiple rounds of negotiations have been held between the two sides since the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict in October last year. A three-phase ceasefire agreement proposed by mediators and supported by the UN Security Council has been on the negotiation table. However, disagreements over key details of the ceasefire agreement have made each round of negotiations fruitless. Recently, the resumption of Gaza ceasefire talks in Doha reignited hope within the international community, but still no progress has been made. The parties have now moved to Cairo for further negotiations.
自去年10月巴以冲突爆发以来，双方已举行多轮谈判。斡旋方提出并得到联合国安理会支持的三阶段停火协议一直摆在谈判桌上，但冲突双方在停火协议关键细节上的分歧，使每次谈判都功亏一篑。近日在多哈重新启动的停火谈判再次燃起国际社会的希望，但未有成果，各方转战开罗继续谈判。
This round of negotiations is taking place against the backdrop of the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and the involvement of Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthi movement in Yemen in the conflict. The mediators, adopting an "all-or-nothing" approach, hope that these negotiations will work a miracle and turn the tide at this critical juncture in the Middle East. Although Hamas refused to participate in direct talks, Israel, the US, Egypt, and Qatar all sent high-level officials, underscoring the importance placed on these negotiations by all parties. However, given the current situation, the talks in Cairo are overshadowed by uncertainty and the outlook remains bleak as key issues are still unresolved. The negotiations, on which all parties placed great hopes, may not escape the fate of failure.
本轮谈判是在哈马斯政治局领导人哈尼亚遇刺，伊朗及黎巴嫩真主党、也门胡塞武装等组织卷入冲突的背景下举行的。斡旋方抱着“毕其功于一役”的心态，希望本轮谈判能够化腐朽为神奇，在中东局势千钧一发之时力挽狂澜。除哈马斯拒绝参加直接谈判，以色列、美国、埃及、卡塔尔都派出高级别官员参加，足见各方重视程度。然而，就目前形势看，由于“堵点”依旧，开罗谈判阴云笼罩，前景难言乐观，被各方寄予厚望的谈判或将难逃无疾而终的命运。
Given the special relationship between the US and Israel, the US is undoubtedly the country that can exert the greatest influence on Israel. However, despite US officials' efforts and frequent diplomatic engagements, their actions have not yielded positive results. Within just two days this week, contradictory information was released by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the White House regarding the progress of the Gaza ceasefire talks and the positions of the involved parties. These mixed signals from the US on the Israel-Palestine conflict and ceasefire negotiations have emboldened Israel's hardline actions. On the one hand, the US' mediation efforts are driven by self-interest, primarily motivated by domestic political considerations. On the other hand, the US has provided substantial political, military, and economic support to Israel during the conflict. And even during the critical period of ceasefire negotiations, the US approved up to USD 20 billion aid to Israel and significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East. Such biased and self-serving mediation efforts not only failed to bring about positive outcomes but also undermined the US' image as a "fair mediator."
由于美以间的特殊关系，美国无疑是可以对以色列施加最大影响的国家。但看美方官员四处奔波、忙前忙后，也并没有起到什么积极作用。本周，在两天时间内，关于加沙停火谈判的进展和各方态度，布林肯和白宫就释放出相互矛盾的信息，美方对巴以冲突及停火谈判发出了一系列混乱的信号，纵容了以色列的强硬行为。一方面，美国的斡旋活动出于私利，主要是受其国内政治利益驱动；另一方面，美国在巴以冲突中向以色列提供了大量政治、军事和经济援助。在停火谈判关键期，美方批准向以方提供多达200亿美元援助，并向中东大量增兵。如此“拉偏架”和私利驱动的斡旋行动，不但无法结出善果，还使美方“公正斡旋人”的人设坍塌。
The ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict has dragged on for nearly 11 months, causing 40,000 deaths and nearly 100,000 injuries in the Gaza Strip and it has become the worst humanitarian disaster in the world. This conflict has also spread to other parts of the Middle East. Its spillover effects continuously heighten geopolitical tensions, turning the region into a powder keg that could blast at any time. At the UN Security Council's open meeting on the Israel-Palestine conflict held on August 22, China made it clear that relying on military means to achieve a "complete victory" in Gaza would only lead to more civilian casualties. It would not create the conditions necessary for the rescue of hostages, nor would it bring peace and stability to Israel and the region. The only viable solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict is the political resolution through the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the implementation of the "two-state solution." China urges influential countries to adopt a sincere, fair, and responsible attitude and urge Israel to cease its military actions in Gaza as soon as possible and to stop the killing of civilians.
本轮巴以冲突已延宕近11个月，造成加沙地带4万人死亡，近10万人受伤，成为世界最严重的人道主义灾难。这场冲突还波及中东多地，其外溢效应持续推高中东地缘政治紧张态势，使中东成为随时燃爆的火药桶。在22日召开的联合国安理会巴以问题公开会上，中方明确表示，迷信通过军事手段在加沙地带实现“完全胜利”只会造成更多无辜平民伤亡，不会为解救被扣押人员创造条件，也不会为以色列和地区带来和平与安宁。实现巴勒斯坦独立建国、落实“两国方案”是政治解决巴以问题的唯一可行出路。中方敦促有重要影响力的国家，拿出真诚、公正、负责任的态度，推动以色列尽早停止在加沙地带的军事行动，停止对平民的杀戮。
The US should put aside its selfishness and genuinely do something to achieve a ceasefire. The international community should also make its utmost efforts to strive for peace and put an end to this bloody conflict in Gaza as soon as possible as the one-year anniversary of the conflict approaches.
美国应放下私心，真正为实现停火做点事。国际社会也应为争取和平付出最大努力，在加沙冲突将满一年之际，尽快为这场血腥的冲突画上句号。
(The author is a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University.)
（作者是上海外国语大学中东研究所教授）
Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
