By Wang Daning
王大宁
According to foreign media reports, the US is expected to officially release its new National Defense Strategy and related reports by the end of October. The updated strategy will prioritize security within the US homeland and the Western Hemisphere, accelerate the global strategic contraction, and urge European allies to assume greater defense responsibilities. This series of adjustments, marked by a strong America First orientation, is set to have a profound impact on transatlantic relations and further prompt Europe to reflect on the issue of defense autonomy.
据外媒报道，美国预计于10月底正式发布新版《国防战略》及相关报告。新版战略将优先聚焦美国本土与西半球安全，加速推进全球战略收缩，并敦促欧洲盟友承担更多防务责任。这一系列调整带有鲜明的“美国优先”色彩，将直接对跨大西洋关系造成重大冲击，并进一步促使欧洲深入思考防务自主议题。
The US Department of Defense announced that Elbridge Colby, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, and his team are responsible for drafting the new National Defense Strategy (NDS). Alongside it, the Pentagon will also release the Global Posture Review (GPR), Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), and Missile Defense Review (MDR). According to US media reports, the new NDS represents a reassessment of America's overall strength and strategic resources. Its core logic largely aligns with the approach taken after Donald Trump's return to the White House. To be specific, it seeks to break away from the post–Cold War security model of global intervention and absolute dominance, and instead establish a security framework characterized by focusing on primary threats, reducing peripheral commitments, and encouraging allies to share greater responsibilities.
美国国防部发布消息称，美国国防部政策事务副部长科尔比及其团队负责制定新版《国防战略》，并将同步推出《全球态势评估》《核态势评估》《导弹防御评估》等报告。据美媒披露，新版战略是美国对自身综合实力与战略资源的重新评估，其核心逻辑与特朗普重返白宫后的思路基本一致：即试图打破冷战后美国长期秉持的“全球干预”与“绝对主导”安全模式，转而构建以“聚焦首要威胁、压缩边际义务、推动盟友分摊责任”为特征的安全框架。
Under this framework, the US will prioritize the security of its homeland and the Western Hemisphere, seeking to concentrate resources through strategic retrenchment and burden-shifting. This move will not only reshape the future global security architecture but also profoundly influence the dynamics of major-country competition. As Washington shifts its strategic focus toward the Americas, the US military is expected to strengthen homeland defense and tighten control over key neighboring regions, while its role within the European alliance system will evolve from a frontline leader to a rear-area overseer.
在此框架下，美国将把本土和西半球安全置于优先位置，通过战略收缩与责任转嫁实现资源聚焦。此举不仅将重塑未来全球安全架构，也将深刻影响大国竞争格局。随着美军战略重心向美洲转移，美国将进一步强化本土防卫和对周边关键区域的控制，其在欧洲同盟体系中的角色将由“前沿主导者”转为“后方督促者”。
The GPR report has drawn close attention from America's European allies, as it involves potential adjustments to US global military deployments. According to reports, the US military may gradually withdraw part of its forces from regions deemed of secondary importance, such as Europe and the Middle East, and redeploy them to the Americas or the so-called Indo-Pacific. Analysts note that this shift will redefine transatlantic relations, putting America's strategic credibility and alliance system to the test.
《全球态势评估》报告因涉及美军全球部署调整备受欧洲盟友关注。据报道，美军可能逐步从欧洲、中东等被列为次要方向的地区撤出部分力量，转而投向美洲或印太地区。有分析指出，这一动向将重新定义跨大西洋关系，使美国的战略信誉与同盟体系面临考验。
Recent signs suggest that the US military is gradually reducing its direct investment in Europe's defense. Both the Pentagon and the EU have confirmed that the US will halt funding for the Baltic Security Initiative within the year. This initiative has long served as a key pillar of defense for the three Baltic states and a crucial component in strengthening NATO's eastern flank deployments. In addition, the US has shown diminishing interest in expanding its missile defense deployments in Europe, and the planned reinforcement of the Patriot missile defense system to Eastern European countries may be delayed.
近期多种迹象显示，美军正逐步削减对欧洲防务的直接投入。五角大楼与欧盟均证实，美国将于年内停止为“波罗的海安全倡议”提供资金。该倡议长期支撑波罗的海三国防务，是强化北约东翼部署的关键项目。此外，美国对在欧洲增加部署导弹防御系统兴趣减弱，原计划向东欧国家增援“爱国者”防空系统的安排可能推迟。
NATO allies generally expect that around 80,000 US troops stationed in Europe will be gradually withdrawn over the coming years. Although President Donald Trump recently assured Polish President Karol Nawrocki that the US will not withdraw troops from Poland and may even increase its presence, he also acknowledged that troop reductions in other parts of Europe are under consideration. Such differentiated statements are intended not only to reassure key allies but also to reflect the uncertainty of the US strategy toward Europe.
北约盟国普遍预期，未来几年，约8万驻欧美军将逐步撤离。尽管特朗普近期在与波兰总统纳夫罗茨基会面时承诺“不会从波兰撤军，甚至可能增派兵力”，但他同时承认正考虑削减在欧洲其他地区的驻军。这种区别对待的表态，既意在安抚关键盟友，也折射出美国对欧战略的不确定性。
Some analysts note that these developments send a clear signal to Europe that the long-term commitment of the US to European security is weakening. Within the US military, there is a widespread perception that military operations in Europe and the Middle East are a waste of resources. Some European media have stated that Europe will adopt a more cautious approach in assessing the security commitments of the US to its allies and adjust its own security strategy accordingly. The reduction of US troops in Europe will undermine NATO's recently set defense build-up goals and, objectively, accelerate the EU’s pursuit of greater defense autonomy.
有评论分析称，上述动向向欧洲传递出明确信号：美国对欧洲安全的长期承诺正在松动。美军内部普遍认为，在欧洲与中东地区的军事行动是在浪费资源。部分欧洲媒体表示，欧洲将以更加审慎的态度评估美国对盟友的安全承诺，并据此调整自身安全战略。美减少驻欧部队，将使北约近期制定的军备建设目标受挫，也将在客观上推动欧盟防务自主建设步伐。
