By Guo Xiaobing
With the ongoing erosion of global strategic stability, international nuclear arms control has presented certain destabilizing factors of high concern; significant changes are expected to emerge in 2026.
Forthcoming multiple shocks
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the US and Russia will expire on February 5, 2026, with no prospect of renewal. As the two countries hold nearly 90% of the world's total nuclear arsenal, they bear unique and primary responsibility for disarmament. However, amid repeated U.S. treaty withdrawals, the bilateral nuclear disarmament system between the US and Russia has been severely undermined.
The nuclear arms race is simultaneously intensifying. In its budget request for fiscal year 2026, the US significantly increased funding for the design, manufacture, maintenance, and modification of nuclear weapons. Russia continues to test and deploy new strategic weapons such as the "9M730 Burevestnik" and "Poseidon Torpedo". The UK plans to purchase 12 F-35 fighter jets capable of carrying tactical nuclear warheads. The UK and France will also deepen nuclear weapons cooperation under the Northwood Declaration to enhance Europe's collective nuclear deterrence.
Moreover, the nearly 30-year suspension in nuclear tests now faces collapse. After repeated claims of resuming nuclear tests, the US will probably put it into practice in 2026. Russia has expressed its potential response with reciprocal measures, and other nuclear-armed states will likely follow suit, hence triggering a new surge of global nuclear testing.
Soaring risks
The current global nuclear non-proliferation system is under huge pressure. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. However, the abounding contradictions existing among nuclear-armed states and the delayed progress of international nuclear disarmament have deeply upset the non-nuclear-armed states. Without any optimistic expectation, many analysts believe that it is difficult to reach an outcome document at the NPT Review Conference scheduled for this year.
The nuclear proliferation problem is even more prominent in Western countries. For the sake of geopolitical gaming, the US is increasingly blatantly adhering to the "double standard" on non-proliferation. Over the past year, the US wantonly used Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) to strike Iran's nuclear facilities under the safeguards and supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). For its allies, a huge number of weapons-grade nuclear materials have been transferred on the pretext of "nuclear submarine cooperation". In this context, Japan's Takaichi administration boldly advocates possessing nuclear weapons and engages in frequent nuclear-related actions, such as attempting to revise the three non-nuclear principles and developing nuclear submarines, all of which warrant high vigilance.
Intensifying technological competition
The present development of emerging technologies also challenges the strategic offensive and defensive landscape.
In terms of missile defense capabilities, to seek absolute security, the US will deploy offensive interceptors in space under the "Golden Dome" program, which will seriously undermine the effectiveness and credibility of other countries' nuclear deterrence capabilities. Up to now, the US military has identified 2,100 contractors for the "Golden Dome". It is expected that in 2026, it will implement the related research and development and manufacturing, and officially release the complete development plan for the "Golden Dome". These actions will further escalate the nuclear arms race.
The cross-domain deterrence has seen increasingly acute competition among land-based intermediate-range missiles capable of striking nuclear weapon-related facilities. Since its withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, the US has made greater efforts to develop multiple land-based intermediate-range missiles, including the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) and the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), commonly known as "Dark Eagle". In Europe, the US plans to deploy the Typhon intermediate-range missile system and the "Dark Eagle" in Germany by 2026. In response, Russia has rescinded its unilateral moratorium on the deployment of land-based intermediate-range missiles and is expected to expand the production and deployment of the Oreshnik and other missiles.
In addition, Ukraine employed a large number of low-cost drones in the operation "Spider Web" to destroy Russia's high-value strategic bombers, demonstrating the rapidly increasing asymmetric threat posed by unmanned equipment to strategic nuclear forces. This fact has spurred countries to accelerate the research and development of unmanned equipment and the update of unmanned combat tactics. Amid the escalating military competition, the international nuclear arms control system will suffer significant uncertainties for a long time to come.
(The author is from the Center for Arms Control Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.)
