By Gao Fei and Yu You
高飞、于游
Moscow is ready to engage in dialogue with the US president Biden and his administration to resolve their divergences as long as the US so intends, said Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the Russian president, on January 24. Kremlin’s initiative to hold dialogues and resolve divergences with the White House and the fact that the two countries seem to cooperate more in strategic security than in the past four years have released positive signals. Whether US-Russia relations can reset successfully has attracted widespread global attention.
俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫1月24日表示，只要美国有意愿，俄罗斯准备与美国总统拜登及其新政府进行对话，化解两国之间的重重分歧。俄罗斯率先倡议两国开展对话、化解分歧，以及近来美俄在战略安全领域的合作比过去四年似乎有所增加，释放了积极的合作信号。美俄两国关系能否顺利实现“重启”引起国际社会的广泛关注。
The conflicts and divergences between the US and Russia are complicated. At present, the international environment is constantly changing. Both Washington and Moscow have a tight schedule at home, and their increased cooperation in strategic security is more driven by their interests. Whether the bilateral ties can restart successfully still faces plenty of challenges.
美俄之间的矛盾和分歧是复杂的，当前国际环境瞬息万变，美俄国内日程紧迫，两国在战略安全领域合作的增加更多是出于自身利益的考量。美俄关系能否成功实现“重启”，还面临多重考验。
First of all, there are structural conflicts between the US and Russia. Washington and Moscow have deeply divided over the global order. While Washington tries hard to maintain its global domination, Russia advocates a multi-polar world. As the world’s two strongest military powers, it’s almost inevitable for them to view each other as a major threat given the security dilemma behind their military strengths, no matter how eagerly they express their wish for peace. Under such circumstances, the political relationship between the two sides can hardly see adetente, their strategic security wrestling will continue, and their competitive status won’t mitigate. The bilateral game between the US and Russia is evident on the Syrian issue, the Iranian nuclear issue, and the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
首先，美俄之间存在结构性矛盾。美俄两国对国际秩序的看法存在根本分歧，美国力图维护其全球霸主地位，而俄罗斯主张多极化世界。作为世界上的两个最强的军事大国，无论美俄双方如何表明和平意愿，军事实力背后的安全困境使双方很难不将彼此视为威胁。在这种情况下，双边政治关系难以缓和，两国在战略安全领域的博弈不会停止，总体竞争态势也不会减弱。围绕叙利亚问题、伊核问题、乌东问题，都能看到美俄大国博弈的身影。
Second, Russia is always labeled as a major threat by Americans. American diplomatic elites have consistently and firmly positioned Russia as the biggest threat to the US that, either geopolitically or ideologically, attempts to undermine Uncle Sam’s international status and erode the democracy and liberty that the country is based upon. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the US-led western countries have been squeezing Russia’s geostrategic space by expanding NATO eastward and launching “color revolutions”. After the Ukraine crisis, Washington took a slew of moves against Moscow, from economic sanctions to closing down consulates to expelling diplomats, creating constant collisions between them. Since 2016, American democrats have been accusing Russia of interfering in the US presidential election, and the “Russiagate” investigation has been quite a sensation. Given the background, it’s hard to determine whether the new Democratic administration would suddenly change its tune toward Russia.
其次，俄罗斯一直被美国视为重要威胁。一直以来，美国外交精英对俄罗斯的定位很明确——俄罗斯是世界上对美威胁最大的国家。无论是在地缘政治还是意识形态上，俄罗斯是企图破坏美国国际地位的“地缘政治对手”，企图破坏美国民主信仰和自由价值观。苏联解体后，从北约东扩到“颜色革命”，以美国为首的西方国家不断挤压俄罗斯的地缘战略空间。在乌克兰危机后，美国对俄罗斯采取了经济制裁、关闭领馆、驱逐外交官等做法，两国关系龃龉不断。2016年以来，美国民主党人批评俄罗斯干预美国大选，“通俄门”调查一度轰轰烈烈，在此氛围下很难判断新上台的民主党政府会突然改善对俄关系。
Third, the US-Russia relation has been affected by European countries. Some eastern European countries are strongly against Russia due to historical reasons. The US often uses Russia as an excuse to sow discord between old Europe and new Europe to maintain its clout on the continent. In the past four years, the Trump administration has spurred the UK to leave the EU, imposed tariffs, and forced expanded defense expenses – moves that have seriously weakened US-European relations. After Biden takes office at the White House, he will attach great importance to the relationship with US European allies. He will mend the alliance, to which end playing up the “Russian threat” will be an important way to bridge the rift, although that means putting more obstacles in the way of mending the US-Russia relationship.
再次，美俄关系一直受到欧洲国家的掣肘。由于历史原因，一些东欧国家抱持强烈的反俄态度。美国也常常利用俄罗斯挑拨“新”“老”欧洲的矛盾，维护自身在欧洲的影响。在过去的四年中，特朗普政府鼓动英国脱欧、加征商品关税、强压扩大防务支出等做法严重削弱了欧美关系。拜登入主白宫后，重视并将加大力度修复与欧洲盟友关系，利用“俄罗斯威胁”将是弥合美欧之间分歧的重要抓手，同时也为改善美俄关系平添了障碍。
During the first 20 years of the new century, US-Russia relations have restarted several times amid rounds of ups and downs. In fact, Trump tried to improve the ties after taking office. Still, the two countries, instead of resetting their relations, have engaged in more intense competition in the military, diplomatic, security, and other sectors. Why is it hard to restart US-Russia relations? It’s because their inherent, structural conflicts cannot be mediated in the short term. Besides, the US still clings to the outdated Cold War mentality and zero-sum game when dealing with inter-state relations, taking confrontations and counterbalancing as its mere prevailing rule, making it harder to improve bilateral ties.
进入新世纪的20年中，美俄关系历经起伏，多次“重启”。特朗普上台后也试图推动改善美俄关系，而事实上，美俄关系不仅没有实现“重启”，反而双方在军事、外交、安全等领域展开了更加激烈的较量。美俄关系重启为何难以成功？归根结底，是固有的结构性矛盾无法在短期内得到调和。此外，美国在处理国家间关系时始终坚持冷战思维和零和博弈的思想，将对抗制衡作为处理国家间关系的唯一法则，也为双边关系的改善增加了难度。
Today, the institutional foundation for the US and Russia to maintain international security and stability is in limbo. Two of the three treaties they signed to keep the international arms control and disarmament system stable – the Treaty on the Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems (ABM), the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), and the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) – have practically lost effect, with the New START to expire in February this year. After the US officially quitted the Open Skies pact in November 2020, Russia also launched the internal procedures for leaving the agreement. Their malicious competition has seriously affected global strategic stability.
如今，美俄维护国际安全稳定的制度基础岌岌可危，两国签署的维护国际军控和裁军体系稳定的三大军控条约——《反导条约》《中导条约》《新削减战略武器条约》已失效两个，《新削减战略武器条约》也将于今年2月到期。继2020年11月美国正式退出《开放天空条约》后，俄罗斯也反制启动了退出《开放天空条约》的国内程序，美俄双方的恶性竞争严重影响着全球战略稳定。
Although there are numerous difficulties to restarting US-Russia relations, the world still hopes for the stable development of their ties. The world today is going through profound changes unseen in a century. As global powers, a stable US-Russia relation is of great importance for world peace and development. The cooperation and dialogue between major powers are essential for international cooperation in response to challenges. Peaceful co-existence between nations is only possible when all countries uphold the principle of mutual respect and win-win cooperation.
尽管美俄关系实现“重启”困难重重，世界仍期待美俄关系的稳定发展。当今世界经历百年未有之大变局。作为世界性大国，美俄两国关系的稳定对世界的和平与发展具有重要意义，大国合作对话对全球合作应对挑战具有重要影响。只有真正坚持相互尊重、合作共赢的国家相处之道，国家间才能够实现真正的和平共处。
(Professor Gao Fei is Vice President of China Foreign Affairs University; Yu You is a scholar at the Renmin University of China.)
（作者高飞为外交学院副院长，作者于游为中国人民大学学者）