季 澄
By Ji Cheng
据美联社报道，澳大利亚总理莫里森近日宣布，澳政府拟斥资10亿澳元（1澳元约合5.01元人民币）与美国联合研发制导导弹，在提升澳国防能力的同时，增加国防技术岗位就业机会。
According to an AP report, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison recently announced that the Australian government plans to invest A$1 billion to develop guided missiles with the US, to boost Australia’s national defense capacity while increasing job opportunities in the defense technology sector.
澳自称强调“自主权”
Australia stressing a “sovereign guided weapons manufacturing capability”
莫里森表示，在不断变化的全球环境中，“武器装备自主权”至关重要。澳国防部将选择一个“经验丰富的战略合作伙伴”合作运营一家新企业，加快自身导弹制造发展计划。澳之所以将“武器装备自主权”列为国防建设优先事项，主要基于以下3点考量。
Morrison stressed that it is crucial for Australia to create a “sovereign guided weapons manufacturing capability”, citing the changing global environment. The Australian Department of Defense will choose an “experienced strategic industry partner” which will be contracted to operate a joint venture for missile manufacturing in a bid to accelerate the implementation of Australia’s missile development plan. Australia made the creation of a “sovereign guided weapons manufacturing capability” a priority on the agenda of its national defense sector mainly for the three reasons as follows:
首先，补齐澳国产制导导弹领域短板。据美媒披露，澳已数十年未制造过先进导弹，主要依靠进口满足防务需求。澳战略政策研究所预计，如澳继续依赖进口，未来20年至少需花费1000亿澳元采购导弹和制导武器。而在澳领土联合研发，可填补其在导弹制造领域的战略空白。
First, Australia intends to mend its weak link in domestically developed guided missiles. According to the US media, Australia hasn’t produced advanced missiles by itself for decades but depends on imported missiles to meet the needs of national defense. TheAustralian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) estimated that if Australia continues relying on imports, it will spend at least A$100 billion purchasing missiles and other guided weapons in the next 20 years. If Australia partners with others to produce missiles on its own land, it is expected to fill in its strategic blank of missile manufacturing.
其次，保障国防供应链，改善军工企业就业形势。在澳方看来，新冠肺炎疫情暴露全球供应链脆弱性，“武器装备自主权”提升，将在全球供应链中断的情况下，为澳军事行动提供装备保障。军工企业就业方面，澳国防工业部部长普赖斯表示，制造国产导弹将创造约2000个就业岗位。
Second, Australia hopes this move will improve its defense supply chain and boost the employment of military enterprises. From Australia's perspective, the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the fragility of the global supply chain, and it is imperative to enhance the sovereign guided weapons manufacturing capability, so that Australia will be able to ensure weapon and equipment support for its military operations if the global supply chain is suspended. The move is also expected to boost employment in the military industry. Australian Minister for Defense Industry Melissa Price said that producing domestic missiles will create about 2,000 jobs in Australia.
再次，推动军工产品出口，重塑国际竞争力。2018年，澳政府发布新国防出口战略，计划10年内投入2000亿澳元扶持本土军工产业建设，力争2028年前将军工产业打造为具有国际竞争力的支柱型产业。澳希望借助国产制导导弹，跻身全球10大国防出口国。
Third, Australia hopes this move wouldboost the exporting of military products and reshape the international competitiveness of its defense products. In 2018, the Australian government released a new defense products export strategy and announced the plan to invest A$200 billion within ten years to support the development of its defense industry, in a bid to make the military sector a pillar industry with international competitiveness by 2028. Australia intends to become one of the world’s top 10 weapon exporters by developing domestic guided missiles.
澳美合作恐另有所图
The real intension of Australia-US collaboration in joint missile development
近年来，澳美军事同盟不断深化，两国的同盟关系一直是澳防务政策的基石。外媒分析，澳此次与美联合制造导弹的真正意图绕不开亚太地区。
In recent years, the Australia-US military alliance has been increasingly consolidated, long been the cornerstone of Australia’s defense policy. According to some media outlets, the underlying reason that Australia partners with the US to produce guided missiles lies in its Asia-Pacific strategy.
对澳方来说，澳在《2020年国防战略更新》中，明确亚太地区是未来国防规划重点方向，拟在未来10年投入2700亿澳元，以应对亚太地区可能出现的军事冲突，通过合作研发进攻型打击装备，国防建设重点由本土防御型向亚太地区拓展的进攻型转变。此次合作是其强化防务能力的重要一环，也是此前一系列强化亚太地区军事战略地位的延续动作。
Australia’s 2020 Defense Strategic Update states that the Asia-Pacific region is a priority in its future defense strategy, and it plans to spend A$270 billion over the next ten years addressing military conflicts that may emerge in the region and collaborate with other countries to develop offensive military equipment, with the focus of its defense policy shifting from homeland defense to offensive expansion in the Asia-Pacific region. The move to partner with the US in developing missiles is an important measure Australia took to strengthen its defense capability, as well as a continuity of the previous maneuvers to strengthen its military and strategic presence in the Asia-Pacific region.
对美方来说，澳独特的地缘优势以及两国的同盟关系，使澳成为美落实“印太战略”构想，完善地区军力部署不可或缺的“棋子”。
For Washington, the unique geographical advantage of Australia and their defense alliance make Australia an indispensable“chess piece” in implementing its Indo-Pacific strategy and strengthening its military deployment in the region.
然而，澳国家经济自2020年疲态尽显，对其研发先进武器造成较大财政掣肘。此外，澳自身尚不成熟的技术条件，极可能使其在与美方的防务合作中形成单向依赖。澳以地区局势紧张为借口，追随美军事战略调整、扩充军备的做法，不但将削弱自身安全政策的自主性，还将危及地区战略稳定大局。
However, Australia’s economy was seriously weakened in 2020, making it short of funds to support the development of advanced weapons. Also, considering Australia’s immature technical ability, there is a high possibility that Australia will be unilaterally reliant on the US in their defense cooperation. That Australia follows the pace of Washington’s military strategy to adjust and expand its armament under the pretext of regional tensions will not only weaken the independence of its security policy but also threaten overall regional strategic stability.
