王晋
By Wang Jin
尽管拜登在 2020 年总统竞选时，曾许诺将会帮助维持伊朗核协议，但是拜登就任总统两个多月以来，美国和伊朗之间关系仍然未能实现突破。伊朗核问题，已经形成了一个战略僵局，只有尽快重建对话渠道，才能帮助解决日益严峻的危机。
Although President Biden vowed to help maintain the Iran nuclear deal when he ran for the presidency in 2020, no breakthrough has been made in the US-Iran relations in over two months after he took office. The Iran nuclear issue has become a strategic deadlock and an increasingly grave crisis that will keep simmering unless dialogue channels are rebuilt as soon as possible.
美国和伊朗相互之间的敌视和不信任，是影响伊朗核问题的重要障碍。
The hostility and mistrust between the US and Iran pose serious challenges to find a solution to solving the Iran nuclear issue
伊朗对于美国的不信任感，使得伊朗难以在短时间内，向美国做出重大让步。目前伊朗国内主张与美国进行沟通的温和派话语权式微，强硬派占据主导。面对特朗普政府的巨大压力，强硬派主张加快发展伊朗的国防实力，尤其是核能力，以应对来自于美国的战略封锁。尤其是美国暗杀伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官苏莱曼尼，以色列暗杀伊朗首席核科学家法赫里扎德后，伊美关系进一步恶化。2020 年伊朗议会选举中，强硬派和保守派大获全胜，并很可能会主导未来四年的伊朗政坛。在此背景下，伊朗必然难以向美国做出让步，更难以与美国展开务实谈判。
Iran mistrusts the US so that it won’t make major concessions to Washington within a short time. The moderates in Tehran that support communication with Washington are out-voiced by the hardliners, who, under the immense pressure imposed by the Trump administration, have called for accelerating the development of Iran’s national defense capabilities, especially nuclear strength so as to cope with the US-imposed strategic blockade.
The Iran-US relation further deteriorated after the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iranian major general and commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and that of Iran’s chief nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Iran’s hardliners and the conservatives swept the boards in the 2020 parliamentary elections and are likely to dominate the domestic political landscape in the four years to come. Under such circumstances, Tehran will hardly make any concession to the US, much less to take a pragmatic approach to the negotiations.
对于美国来说，伊朗同样难以完全信任。2021 年，伊朗似乎在也门内战、叙利亚和伊拉克等中东地区敏感议题上都占据了先机，而且与其地区影响力上升相伴的，还有伊朗导弹技术的发展。在过去多年里，伊朗的导弹技术也取得了较大进展，其 " 流星 " 和 " 泥石 " 系列导弹，都形成了巨大的战略威慑力。对于美国中东盟国沙特和以色列来说，伊朗为数众多且射程较远的导弹，是悬在他们头顶的利剑。
The US, on the other hand, mistrusts Iran just as much. In 2021, Iran seems to have taken the upper hand in the Yemen civil war and in sensitive topics over the Middle East, such as Syria and Iraq, and its rising regional influence is accompanied by the advancement of its missile technologies. Over the past few years, Iran’s missile technologies have made substantial progress, with its “Shahab” and “Sejil” missiles developing tremendous strategic deterrence. Iran’s multitudes of long-range missiles are also a Damocles’ Sword over the head of America’s Middle East allies like Saudi Arabia and Israel.
要打破美国和伊朗彼此对立的话语僵局，欧洲的作用将十分关键。
Europe has a critical role to play in breaking the deadlock between the US and Iran
欧盟被伊朗赋予了较大期待。一方面，伊朗希望获得来自于欧洲国家的大规模投资和帮助，提振伊朗经济和社会发展。另一方面，欧盟是伊朗核协议的签署方，也是美国重要的战略盟友，伊朗希望欧盟能够在中间进行一定的斡旋。
Iran has placed high hopes on the EU. On the one hand, Iran needs massive investments and assistance from European countries for its economic and social development. On the other hand, it expects the EU, a signing party of the Iran nuclear deal and a strategic ally of the US, to mediate between Washington and Tehran.
然而在现实中，美国期望欧盟能够理解美国对于伊朗的担忧，帮助美国劝说伊朗扩大谈判内容，将遏制导弹技术和地区影响力，纳入未来伊朗核谈判的框架中。欧盟、法国和德国则认为，伊朗核协议是多边主义成果，美国单方面退出协议，实际上损坏了谈判的基础，因此美国应当撤除相关制裁措施，在此基础上重建美国和伊朗对话的基础。
But in reality, Washington expects the EU to understand its concerns over Tehran and help it persuade Tehran to expand the scope of negotiations to include such contents as restricting Iran’s missile technology development and regional influence. In contrast, the EU, France and Germany all hold that the Iran nuclear deal is an outcome of multilateral efforts, but America's unilateral withdrawal has ruined the foundation for negotiation, so Washington should lift its sanction measures and restart talks with Tehran on that basis.
伊朗希望欧洲国家能够顶住美国的压力，" 切实履行 " 伊朗核协议的相关内容，但欧洲企业却在 2018 年前后撤出了伊朗市场，加剧了伊朗经济困难。因此伊朗要求欧洲国家采取措施，重新帮助欧洲企业回到伊朗。而欧洲国家则认为，政府难以决定企业的投资意愿，况且美国制裁下，任何在伊朗投资的欧洲企业必然因美国制裁而遭受损失。因此欧洲国家要求伊朗应该尽快返回核协议监管机制下，扫除国际社会的担忧。
While Iran hoped European countries could withstand US pressure and faithfully fulfill the deal, European enterprises pulled back from the Iran market around 2018, adding fuel to the flame of Iran’s economic plight. Iran asked Europe to take steps to help bring their enterprises back. However, European countries insisted that governments cannot decide the enterprises’ willingness of investment, not to mention that any European enterprise investing in Iran would suffer losses due to American sanctions. As a result, Europeans asked Iran to come back to the supervisory framework of the deal at an early date and relieve the international community of their worries.
至此，美国、伊朗和欧洲，在核问题上形成了一个相互的僵局态势。僵局难以一劳永逸地解开。受到国内反对声浪的影响和各自盟友的干扰，美国和伊朗难以直接展开对话，因此通过第三方尤其是欧盟的协调，以 " 间接对话 " 的方式，实现接触，恢复谈判，是美国和伊朗化解敌意的必经之路。与此同时，美国提出的通过 " 分解 " 的方式，以彼此 " 小让步 " 促成美国伊朗关系改善，实现美国 " 撤除相关制裁 " 和伊朗 " 重回核协议机制 "，也是一种困难的尝试。
Therefore, the US, Iran, and Europe have ground to a stalemate on the nuclear issue that seems impossible to solve once and for all. Due to opposition at home and interference from their allies, it’s hard for Washington and Tehran to start dialogue directly, and the only way to mitigate their mutual hostility is through the coordination of a third party, especially the EU, so they can resume contacts and negotiation through “indirect dialogue”. In the meantime, Washington has made a tough attempt to mend bilateral ties by means of reciprocal “small concessions”, hoping the US would lift sanctions and Iran would return to the nuclear deal.
伊朗核问题的解决，窗口期实际上非常有限。
There is a very narrow window period for solving Iran nuclear issue
6 月份即将开启的伊朗大选，到 8 月份将会产生新一届伊朗政府。如果伊朗强硬派上台执政，很可能会重演鲁哈尼前任、伊朗强硬派总统艾哈迈迪内贾德执政时期，伊朗与美国的僵冷关系。
The Iran general election will kick off in June, and a new administration will be formed in August. If the hardliners take power, Iran-US relations would probably freeze again, like during the reign of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Hassan Rouhani’s hawkish predecessor.
与此同时，欧洲国家尽管同情伊朗遭受的制裁，但是并不认同伊朗退出核协议，启动核武器研发的举措。2015 年之前，欧洲国家也曾经和美国一起，向伊朗施加经济制裁，要求伊朗停止核研发活动。
Meanwhile, European countries didn’t approve of Iran exiting the nuclear deal and beginning R&D of nuclear weapons even though they felt sorry for it being sanctioned. Before 2015, they joined the US in imposing economic sanctions on Iran to force it to stop its nuclear activities.
如果伊朗核问题在未来几个月难以实现突破，且伊朗核研发脱离国际社会监管，很可能会引来新的危机。以色列已经多次表示，密切关注伊朗核研发动向，并在近期向美国拜登政府表示，会考虑通过武力打击伊朗，阻遏伊朗的核研发进程。
If no breakthrough is made in the Iran nuclear issue in the next few months and Iran’s nuclear weapon development is beyond international supervision, a new crisis is likely looming near. Israel has said many times it is closely watching Iran’s nuclear movements and has recently told the Biden administration that it is considering curbing Iran’s nuclear R&D through the use of force.
如果伊朗核问题在未来数月难以实现突破，那么一个更加不稳定，且充满敌意的中东地区，将很可能酝酿更大的动荡和危机。
In a few months, a more severe turmoil and crisis may ferment in the more unstable and hostile Middle East – unless relevant parties can realize a substantial step forward on the Iran nuclear issue before that time.
（作者王晋为察哈尔学会研究员,西北大学中东研究所副教授、西北大学叙利亚研究中心研究员 ）
(Wang Jin is an associate professor from the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies, senior research fellow from the Syria Research Center of Northwest University of China, and research fellow of Charhar Institute in China.)
Editor's note: This article is originally published on myzaker.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
