NATO kicked off the largest air force deployment exercise Air Defender 2023, in Germany on June 12. The 10-day exercise is the biggest-ever of its kind in NATO's history, and takes place in the vast areas extending to the Russia-Ukraine border, with Germany as the center. The US even dispatched aircraft including B-1 bombers and F-35 fighter jets to participate in the drill.
史上最大规模的北约“空中卫士-23”军事演习12日在德国开幕，此次演习为北约历史上最大，时间跨度长达十天，演习地点以德国为中心向东扩展到俄乌边境。美国还动用了B-1战略轰炸机、F-35战斗机等大杀器参加演习。
It is worth noting that the exercise happened against the backdrop of escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine. As the Ukrainian military was poised for a strategic counterattack, the Nova Kakhovka dam collapsed after several explosions, resulting in a severe humanitarian crisis and environmental disaster. Afterward, some NATO member countries declared that they would provide more medium- and long-range offensive missiles to Ukraine. The US hinted that it might allow Ukraine to attack the mainland of Russia. Some Eastern European countries even claimed that they would bypass NATO and directly deploy troops in Ukraine.
值得注意的是，演习之前，俄乌战事正处于陡然升级的过程当中。在乌克兰发动大反攻之际，卡霍夫卡水库大坝突然被炸，导致严重的人道主义危机和环境灾难。此后，一些北约国家扬言将向乌克兰提供更多的中远程进攻型导弹，美国则放风说不排除会允许乌克兰打击俄罗斯本土，甚至还有一些东欧国家声称他们将绕过北约直接向乌克兰境内派兵参战。
Liu Heping, a Chinese military commentator, believes that NATO launched this large-scale joint air defense exercise because, on the one hand, it intends to pacify some aggressive member states that itch for action and to unify the paces of its member countries; on the other hand, it wants to incite Ukraine to “take bold actions to attack Russia since NATO would back it” while warning Russia not to “escalate the conflict into a nuclear war”.
军事评论员刘和平认为，北约举行这次大规模的空中联合军事演习，一方面是为了安抚一些情绪激动蠢蠢欲动的北约国家，并且统一北约各国的行动步骤。另一方面则是为了向乌克兰发出“放心大胆去反攻，北约在背后撑腰”的信号，同时也再度向俄罗斯发出“不得将战事升级为核战争”的信号。
Previously, Lieutenant General Michael A. Loh, director of the US Air National Guard, told The Wall Street Journal that the exercise went beyond deterrence; it was a true, serious military maneuver and deployment. “The subtext behind his words is that if unexpected situations occur in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there is a possibility for NATO to be directly involved in the war,” Liu noted. “Perhaps NATO will participate in the war in the form of large-scale air raids and targeted killings. It is unlikely that NATO will deploy ground troops.”
美国空军国民警卫队司令迈克尔·洛中将此前对《华尔街日报》表示，此次演习不仅仅是威慑，同时还是一次认认真真的军事调动与部署。“这背后的潜台词就是，假如俄乌战场态势出现了令人意想不到的进展，不排除北约将会直接下场参战。且北约参战的方式或将是大规模的空中打击与定点清除，不太可能会派出地面部队，”刘和平分析。
Though not a NATO member, Japan sent its Self-Defense Forces to participate in Air Defender 2023. This was the first time Japan joined NATO's air deployment exercises. Liu pointed out that Japan's participation is unexpected, considering that the country on the west coast of the Pacific Ocean hasn't joined NATO yet and is under the constraint of the Article 9 of its constitution.
“空中卫士-2023”联合军演中，非北约成员国日本也派出自卫队参演，这也是日本自卫队首次参加北约的空中军演。刘和平指出，远在太平洋西岸、不仅不是北约成员国，且受到本国宪法第九条约束的日本也要参加，这令人感到十分突兀。
He noted that through dispatching its Self-Defense Forces to participate in the exercise, Japan not only tried to fawn on NATO, so as to prepare for introducing NATO into the Asia-Pacific region and establishing the NATO office in Tokyo, but also harbored ulterior motives.
他认为，日本派遣自卫队参加北约“空中卫士”军演，不仅是在向北约套近乎，递投名状，为接下来将北约引进亚太，在东京设立办事处做准备，而且另有所图。
According to Michael A. Loh, the exercise aimed to enable the NATO forces to achieve similar deployments in places as far as the ROK or Japan within hours, instead of months, in the future. Liu commented that this means if NATO is directly involved in the war with Russia, its allied forces will attack Russia from the west, namely Europe, and Japan, the ROK, as well as the US troops stationed in the two countries, will attack Russia from the east, namely Northeast Asia, thus forming a pincer attack.
根据美国空军国民警卫队司令迈克尔·洛中将的说法，这次军事演习，为的是“未来可以让盟军在几个小时，而不是几个月内，在远至韩国或日本的地方实施类似部署”。刘和平分析，这背后透露出的信息是，一旦北约直接下场对俄罗斯开战，不仅北约盟军会从西面，也就是欧洲方向向俄罗斯发动进攻，且日本、韩国以及美国驻扎在日韩的美军还将从东面，也就是东北亚方向向俄罗斯发动进攻，形成东西两面夹击之势。
“In my view, the reason Japan participated in NATO's large-scale joint air defense exercise Air Defender 2023 may be to get prepared to attack Russia from the east once it is involved in the war, and at the same time, this move aimed to offset the influence of Russia's ongoing military drills in the Baltic Sea in the west as well as the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk in the east,” Liu added.
“我预判日本这次参与北约‘空中卫士23’大规模空中联合军演，或是在为将来一旦开战，可以从东面进攻俄罗斯做准备。同时也是对冲俄罗斯当前在西面波罗的海与东面日本海、鄂霍次克海同时展开的军演。”
It is likely that Japan intends to gain leverage for the dispute on the Southern Kurils (claimed as the Northern Territories by Japan) by joining NATO's war against Russia. Liu said this explained the rumor that after the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan and Germany may provide economic compensation to Ukraine in place of Russia, and the latter may have to return some disputed territories to Japan and Germany. Therefore, many countries which have territorial disputes with Russia due to historical reasons are itching for a try.
对于日本来说，可能还有意通过参与北约对俄罗斯的战争，在南千岛群岛（日方称“北方四岛”）问题上争取筹码。刘认为,这就是为什么近来流传出这样一则消息，即在俄乌冲突结束之后，可以由日本与德国代替俄罗斯向乌克兰进行经济补偿，而俄罗斯则将部分领土归还给德国与日本的原因。所以，当前很多跟俄罗斯存在领土主权纠纷或是有历史过节国家，都在暗中摩拳擦掌，跃跃欲试。
Editor's note: Originally published on baijiahao.baidu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
