By Yang Jinghua
杨晶华
Amidst tensions between China and the US and the heat-up of 2024 Taiwan's leadership election, the US and the Taiwan authorities have been stepping up collusion and intensifying their provocations against China. Recently, they almost simultaneously exaggerated and hyped up war crisis across the Taiwan Strait, which aroused heated discussions and disputes.
在中美关系紧张及2024年台湾地区领导人选举加速的背景下，美台勾连对华挑衅势态日益严峻。近日，美台几乎同时翻新渲染台海战争危机升高氛围，引爆各界的热议与争议。
The Messenger of the US quoted news from anonymous US intelligence officials on June 12 that the Biden administration has been secretly formulating a plan to evacuate American citizens from Taiwan for up to six months. The plan provoked further discussion especially as the tension across the Taiwan Strait has been rising in the past two months. In addition to the US, Indonesia, the Philippines and other countries have also formulated evacuation plans, and Japan has even discussed evacuation schemes with the Taiwan authorities.
美国《信使报》12日引述匿名美国情报官员消息称，拜登政府已秘密研拟撤离在台美国公民的计划长达6个月，尤其近两个月台海局势的升温，使该项计划被进一步讨论，除美国外，印尼、菲律宾等国也制定撤离计划，日本也与台湾当局讨论“撤侨”计划。
In this regard, the White House National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby denied the need to consider the evacuation policy in Taiwan, but implicitly affirmed that the country has reserved evacuation schemes.
对此，美国白宫国安会战略沟通协调员约翰•柯比否认需要在台湾地区考虑撤侨政策，但同时变相肯定美国拥有“撤侨”方案储备。
Meanwhile, Taiwan media disclosed on June 13 that the defense department in the region had released the Civil Defence Contingency Handbook, which includes the Taiwan military's prediction of possible wartime situations to show their "earnest attitude" toward so-called war preparation.
与此同时，台媒13日披露，台湾地区“防务部门”公布“全民防务应变手册”，内容包括台军方预判战时可能发生的状况等，展现“真实备战”态度。
Political calculations lurk behind the fact the US and Taiwan hyped up the risks across the Taiwan Strait and stoked war anxieties with great fanfare and "tacit understanding". Amid the escalated and complex gaming situation between China and the US, Washington continues to strengthen the manipulation of the "Taiwan card" to increase strategic chips and maximize strategic interests.
美台大张旗鼓且“默契十足”地炒作台海风险，贩卖“战争焦虑”，背后都有攫取政治利益的盘算。在中美博弈复杂升级态势下，美国政府持续强化“台湾牌”的操弄力度，以增加战略筹码，使战略利益达到最大化。
The US' trick to heighten the war risks across the Taiwan Strait by clamoring the evacuation plans is in line with its political consideration of creating a favorable public opinion environment for its further intervention in the Taiwan question, and is also concordant with its political calculations of raising the tensions in neighboring countries or regions and promoting "internationalization" of the Taiwan question.
美国炒作制定“撤侨”计划，抬升台海战争风险的操作符合其铺垫深度介入台湾问题舆论基础的政治考虑，同时也符合其升高周边国家或地区紧张气氛，深化台湾问题“国际化”程度的政治盘算。
In addition to pandering to the US political considerations of "containing China with Taiwan", the DPP authorities' hyping up the emergency war preparation topics is also inseparable from their election campaign. Since Tsai Ing-wen came to power, the DPP had been adopting the ploy of intensifying public anxieties by highlighting "war countdown" in all campaigns, in an attempt to dilute the negative impacts of its ineffective administration, divert social attention, and mislead public opinions to stabilize the election situation.
而台湾民进党当局伺机炒作紧急备战议题，除卖力配合美国“以台制华”战略部署的政治考虑之外，也与其一直以来采取的“反中抗中”选战部署密不可分。在蔡英文执政以来的各项大小选战中，民进党都采取强化“战争倒计时”压力的方式，企图淡化执政不利的负面影响，转移社会关注，左右舆论导向，凝聚民意稳定选情。
As the 2024 leadership election is drawing near, which will decide the future and fate of its key political figures, it will be more difficult for the DPP to break free from habitual thinking and give up the old practice of "relying on the US to confront mainland and promote elections".
尤其面临事关民进党发展走向及其关键政治人物前途命运的2024年“大选”，民进党更难跳脱惯性思维，放弃“倚美抗中促选”的老路。
However, in the current background, the political manipulations of the US and the Taiwan authorities may have the effect of doing more harm than good. The DPP authorities have strongly adopted the path of "relying on the US to seek independence and confront mainland", and completely skewed towards the US as its obedient pawn , which has put the Taiwan region in an extremely unfavorable predicament and even made it "the most dangerous place on Earth".
但在当前的时空背景之下，美台的政治操作恐怕会产生“弊大于利”的效果。民进党当局强势采取“倚美谋独”“倚美抗中”路线，全面倒向美国，甘当美国“棋子”的做法，已使台湾地区处于极为不利的困境，甚至被认为“处于兵凶战危的境地，是全球最危险的地方”。
However, skepticism of the US has continuously fermented in the region as a result of the US' ambiguity on supporting Taiwan and clarity on exploiting it while turning the island into a hedgehog or a powder keg. War anxieties also make the people on the island full of doubts about whether the DPP 2024 leadership candidate Lai Ching-te, who holds a strong stance on "Taiwan independence", can stabilize the situation across the Taiwan Strait. The US and the Taiwan authorities' joint efforts to exaggerate the tensions across the Taiwan Strait are possible to deepen the existing skepticism over the US and Lai, exerting opposite effects to their political calculations.
而美国“模糊挺台”“清晰用台”，打造“刺猬岛”“火药库”的做法，使“疑美论”不断发酵。“战争焦虑”也使岛内民众对于民进党“大选”参选人“台独金孙”赖清德能否稳定台海局势充满疑虑。美台联动渲染台海紧张态势升级的做法，恐将助攻“疑美论”“疑赖论”发酵，与其政治盘算相左。
(The author is an associate researcher at the Institute of Taiwan Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
(作者为中国社会科学院台湾研究所副研究员)
Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
