By Li Gongmiao, Xia Yanfei
李功淼 夏燕飞
The past year of 2022 has seen an eventful world shrouded in dark clouds of conflicts, with joint military exercises being staged one after another across the world against the background of the yearlong Russia-Ukraine conflict. As confrontation is growing in intensity, military exercises have become more tech-oriented - new technologies are tested, new equipment keeps emerging, and new forces are coming to the fore. As the highest form of military training, military exercise is somewhat like a wind vane for the development of geopolitical hotspots. All signs show that the year of 2023 is going to witness more complicated dynamics in joint military exercises.
2022年，世界局势波诡云谲，尤其在俄乌冲突持续经年的背景下，世界范围的联合军演目不暇接。伴随对抗程度的日益增强，各方军演中科技主导的特点日益凸显，新技术不断得以检验，新装备持续粉墨登场，新力量逐渐暂露头角。军事演习作为军事训练的最高级形式，对于世界地缘热点发展趋势具有重要的导向作用。很显然，在刚刚开始的2023年中，联合军演的发展将面临着更为复杂的未来趋势。
(I)Exercises for verification become the new normal.
（一） 验证性演习成为演习的新形态
While conducting massive joint live-fire exercises in large quantities every year, countries have also organized numerous exercises for research and verification, which, although of a smaller scale, may represent the future direction and priority of war preparedness and the future trend of warfare. What the US has done in this regard is worth special attention. For instance, the US Army initiated the “Project Convergence 2022” that offered a platform for the industrial sector to exhibit and verify their cutting-edge technologies and prove whether they are mature enough for military application. The Test Flag Enterprise represented by Emerald Flag and Black Flag is tasked with testing how UAVs, maneuvering command and control, and other technologies can be applied in the troops, while the US Marines’ Exercise Steel Knight 2023 is to validate the Pacific combat concept. Clearly the US military has shifted the purpose of some of its military exercises from practicing tactics, as is the tradition, to verifying technologies. Such systematic verification will facilitate the quicker completion of emerging technologies’ development cycle from proposing the needs, experimenting and demonstrating, application in exercise (real combat) to proposing new needs, and minimize the time needed to move high and new technologies from concept to combat.
各国每年在进行大量大规模联合实兵演习的同时，还进行了大量的研究性和验证性演习。这些演习规模可能不是很大，但却可能代表了未来军事斗争准备的方向和重点，描写着未来战争的发展趋势。这方面美国的相关做法尤其值得关注，如美陆军牵头组织的“汇聚工程-2022”演习以验证前沿技术为目的，以建立“门户”的方式为工业界提供展示与验证新技术的平台，以论证新兴技术是否成熟以及纳入军事应用的可能性；以“黑旗”“翠旗”为代表的“试验旗”系列作战实验则担负起使无人机运用、机动指挥控制等技术在部队中实际运用的重任；美国美军陆战队进行的“钢铁骑士-2023”演习则主要以验证太平洋作战概念为目的等。可以看出，美军已开始将一些军事演习由传统的练战术为主转到当下的练技术为主，通过系统验证性演习，让新兴技术得以尽快完成“提出需求-实验论证-演习（实战）应用-提出需求”循环，尽可能缩短高新技术从概念开发到进入实战的时间。
(II)Japan’s multiple breaches in 2022 call for grave concerns.
（二） 日本2022年的多项突破引发担忧
In recent years, Japan, with America’s backing and abetting, has tried hard to break away from the Pacifist Constitution on the excuse of revising the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology, with the aim of completely “normalizing” its military development. In 2022, the JMSDF led the ANNUALEX joint maritime exercise involving the American, Canadian, Australian, and German navies to enhance their collective war preparedness, maritime superiority and troop projection capability in the Indo-Pacific region. While Japanese troops have participated in multilateral military exercises before, it was rare for Tokyo to lead in one. In fact, Japan has taken many other steps in 2022 to “normalize” its military forces step by step. In March, it hosted a multilateral cyber warfare exercise; in August, it participated in NATO’s “Noble Partner 2022” exercise in Georgia; from the end of November to early December, it deployed fixed-wing warplanes in the Philippines and dispatched two F-15 fighter jets to their joint military exercise; in November; it escorted American and Australian troops at the same time; in late November, it signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) with the UK - the first such agreement with a European country - that simplified the procedures needed for their troops to enter the other country. All these moves are firsts for Japan. Experts said the JSDF has become increasingly like a formidable, powerful defense force, and the country’s military exercises in 2023 are worth special attention.
近年来，日本在美国的支持和怂恿下，以修改“修改装备转移三原则”为借口，企图摆脱和平宪法束缚，试图实现军事力量完全“正常化”.2022年，日本海上自卫队主导了由美国、加拿大、澳大利亚和德国海军参加的ANNUALEX海上联合演习，旨在进一步加强在印度洋-太平洋地区的集体战备、海上优势和力量投送。日本军事力量之前参加多国联合军事演习时有发生，但主导有其他国家军队参加联军演习实属反常。事实上，2022年日本军事力量类似步步蚕食逼近“正常化”的军事举措还有很多：3月，日本首次主办了由多国军队参加的网络战演习；8月，日本首次参加北约在格鲁吉亚组织的“高贵伙伴2022”军事演习；11月底至12月初，日本首次在菲律宾部署固定翼战机，派2架F-15战机参加与菲律宾的联合军演；11月日本首次同时为美澳两军护航；11月下旬日本首次同欧洲国家——英国签署《互惠准入协定》，简化两国部队进入对方国家的流程等等。有专家指出，当前的日本自卫队越来越不像是自卫队，而是一支令人生畏的强大国防军。因此，2023年日本的军事演习相关发展尤其值得关注。
(III)Humanity is facing unprecedented nuclear threats.
（三） 人类当前面临核威胁前所未有
The US-led NATO and Russia would carry out nuclear exercises annually to demonstrate their nuclear strengths, and the situation in 2022 was obviously more complex and severe owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia staged the “Grom” or “Thunder” strategic nuclear exercise even before the conflict broke out. After it did break out, Moscow was faced with a dire situation at home and internationally under the all-round sanctions by western countries, and put its nuclear forces in a state of special combat readiness three days through the conflict. Later as the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station, the largest in Europe, was under constant attacks, senior Russian officials made “ambiguous” remarks about the use of nuclear weapons several times, and their warnings about the use of “dirty bomb” captured intense attention, causing some world-renowned politicians to repeatedly warn of an imminent threat of a nuclear war. On December 29, Russian President Putin attended the launch ceremony of nuclear-powered strategic submarines Generalissimo Suvorov and Emperor Alexander III via video link. Every move it takes concerning nuclear forces pulls at the nerve of the world. At the same time, the US-led NATO has staged multiple strategic nuclear exercises such as the “Steadfast Noon”, and America will hold the keel laying ceremony for its first Columbia-class strategic nuclear submarine this year. DPRK has already test-fired a slew of new strategic nuclear weapons this year, while senior Israeli officials have said multiple times that they may attack Iran’s nuclear facilities in the future. Compared with 2022 featuring the Russia-Ukraine conflict, one can hardly imagine a year imbued with more unsettling nuclear risks than 2023.
美国为首的北约以及俄罗斯每年都会例行性展示一下自己的核力量，进行一些核演习，俄乌冲突影响下的2022年则显得复杂严峻。从俄罗斯方面看，其在俄乌冲突爆发前，已率先举行了“雷霆-2022”战略核演习。冲突爆发后，受西方国家全方位制裁影响，俄国际国内处境十分艰难，冲突第3天俄核部队即宣布进入特殊战备状态。之后欧洲最大的核电站扎波罗热频繁遭到袭击，俄高层多次发表是否运用核武器的“暧昧”言论，以及“脏弹”警告引发高度关注，使得一些国际知名政治家多次警告核战争迫近的威胁。12月29日，俄罗斯总统普京以视频方式出席了“苏沃洛夫大元帅” 号和“亚历山大三世皇帝”号战略核潜艇的下水仪式，俄在涉核方面的一举一动都牵动着世界的神经。除俄罗斯外，以美国为首的北约也进行了“坚定正午”等多次战略核演习，今年美国还举行了“哥伦比亚级”战略核潜艇首艇的龙骨铺设仪式；朝鲜今年试射了多款新型战略核武器；以色列高层多次发表未来可能袭击伊朗核设施的言论等等。种种迹象表明，与俄乌冲突背景下的2022年相比，很难找到比2023年更令人担忧核风险的年份。
Editor's note: Originally published on gmw.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
