杨 淳 肖 辉
By Yang Chun and Xiao Hui
6月16日，俄罗斯总统普京和美国总统拜登将在瑞士日内瓦举行会晤，就双方共同关注的议题进行商讨。在“普拜会”召开之前，美国与俄罗斯互放狠话，展现强硬对抗姿态，为会议蒙上阴影。
Russian President Putin and his American counterpart Joe Biden are set to meet in Geneva, Switzerland, on June 16 to discuss topics of common concern, but both sides’ tough statements have already cast a shadow over the upcoming event.
美国强调捍卫盟友
America emphasizes defending allies
6月7日，美国总统拜登在白宫与北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格进行会晤，期间双方就与俄罗斯关系进行讨论并达成共识：在推动与俄对话的同时继续对其进行遏制。同日，美国总统国家安全事务助理沙利文表示，美方将美俄领导人会晤视为两国高层沟通的机会，但美方并不期待此次会晤取得显著成果。
On June 7, US President Joe Biden met with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in the White House. They discussed the relations with Russia and reached the consensus that they will continue to contain Russia while advancing dialogue with it. On the same day, President Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Washington takes the upcoming meeting between American and Russian leaders as an opportunity of high-level communication but doesn’t expect anything substantial from it.
日前，拜登在《华盛顿邮报》上发表文章，承诺将采取有效措施应对俄罗斯威胁，巩固美国所谓“民主联盟”。拜登表示，美国及其盟友应共同应对俄罗斯威胁。尤其是在乌克兰问题上，美国捍卫“民主价值观”的决心毫无疑问。
Biden recently published an article on Washington Post, pledging to take effective measures to counter threats from Russia and consolidate what he calls the “democratic alliance”. According to Biden, the US and its allies should jointly cope with the Russian threats, and there is no question about America’s resolution to defend “democratic values” on Ukraine.
作为对拜登表态的呼应，斯托尔滕贝格表示，即将公布的“北约2030倡议”将进一步阐述俄罗斯的战略威胁，“目前对北约联盟来说是一个关键时刻，在一个竞争更加激烈和不可预测的世界中，需要跨大西洋的团结”。
Echoing Biden’s statement, Stoltenberg said the NATO 2030 initiative to be released soon would further elaborate on the strategic threats posed by Russia. “This is a pivotal moment for our alliance and our collective security. In a more competitive and unpredictable world, we need transatlantic unity,” he added.
俄罗斯不期待突破
Russia expects no breakthrough
在美国放狠话的同时，俄罗斯无论是官方还是媒体，都对“普拜会”前景表示悲观。
While the US was making tough statements, both the Russian government and media expressed pessimism about the Putin-Biden meeting.
一是高层漠然。俄总统普京6月4日在参加圣彼得堡国际经济论坛时表示，俄美关系目前处于低谷，美国公开表示要遏制俄罗斯发展，他不期待与拜登的会晤能对俄美关系有任何突破。
First, Russian leaders are indifferent to the meeting. When attending the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 4, Putin said the Russia-US relation is at a low point. The US publicly announced it would contain Russia’s development, and he didn’t expect the meeting to bring any breakthrough for bilateral relations.
二是媒体看衰。俄罗斯《祖国武库》杂志主编穆拉霍夫斯基评论称，俄美双方当前对诸多事务持有不同立场，因此俄美首脑会晤不可能达成重要协议。俄罗斯学者阿列克谢·波普拉夫斯基表示，当今俄美关系处于发展轨迹最低点，双方互不信任，美国以最后通牒、制裁和荒谬指控的方式与俄罗斯打交道，“普拜会”很难促成美俄关系“重启”。
Second, media in Russia are pessimistic about the meeting. Viktor Murakhovsky, editor-in-chief of the influential Russian defense journal Arsenal of Homeland, commented that Washington and Moscow don’t see eye to eye on many things, so the top leaders’ meeting isn’t likely to reach any important agreement. Russian scholar Aleksey Poplavsky said the current Russia-US relation is at a record low in history, featuring mutual distrust. Washington is treating Moscow with an ultimatum, sanction, and ridiculous accusations. Therefore, the upcoming meeting between the two heads of state won’t reboot bilateral relations.
三是对等回应。美国不断向俄罗斯施压，俄罗斯也针锋相对作出回应。根据俄罗斯北方舰队发布的消息，俄罗斯海军已开始在巴伦支海举行大规模军演，演练内容为保卫俄北极地区不受威胁。共有多支岸防部队、超过20艘水面舰艇和潜艇以及约10架固定翼飞机和直升机参演。
Third, the two countries are making tit-for-tat moves. The US has kept pressuring Russia, and Russia has responded tit-for-tat. According to news released by Russia’s Northern Fleet, the Russian Navy has begun a large-scale military drill at the Barents Sea, focused on protecting the country’s North Pole region from external threats. Multiple coast defense troops, more than 20 surface vessels, and submarines, and about ten fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters participated in the drill.
会谈前景不容乐观
The Putin-Biden summit has dim prospects.
据俄方透露，此次“普拜会”将讨论军备控制、全球冲突、新冠肺炎疫情和气候变化等议题。美方也发布消息称，拜登将向普京提及网络犯罪等议题。白宫新闻秘书普萨基6月4日称，美俄首脑会晤有望谈及核安全稳定以及乌克兰局势等话题。美方不期待这场会晤解决两国关系的所有问题。展望未来，受多重因素影响，“普拜会”的象征意义大于实质意义，很难让美俄关系在短期内回到正轨。
Information from the Russian side shows that the Putin-Biden meeting will discuss a range of topics, including arms control, global conflicts, COVID-19 pandemic, and climate change. The American side also released news that Biden will broach topics like cyber-crimes. The White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on June 4 that the two leaders might talk about nuclear security and the situation in Ukraine. Still, American doesn’t count on the meeting to resolve all problems between the two countries. Therefore, due to all these factors, the Putin-Biden meeting is much more symbolic than substantive and won’t be able to bring the bilateral relations back to the normal track in the short term.
一方面，结构性矛盾难以消弭。综合来看，俄美关系当前处于历史低点，双方摩擦不断、矛盾重重，亟需解决的问题堆积如山。另一方面，北约仍是“破冰”障碍。此次“普拜会”前，拜登将参加七国集团峰会、北约峰会和美欧峰会，上述峰会非但难为“普拜会”营造良好舆论氛围，甚或将对俄作出强硬的“遏制”措施，相关情况可能进一步影响“普拜会”成效。俄罗斯战略与技术分析中心主任鲁斯兰·普霍夫曾称，北约是俄与西方改善关系的障碍。
For one thing, their structural conflicts are hard to erase. The relationship between Russia and the US is at the lowest point ever, with constant frictions and mounting problems waiting to be addressed. For another, NATO remains the obstacle to ice-breaking. Biden is going to attend the G7 Summit, the NATO Summit, and the US-EU Summit before meeting with Putin, and those events, instead of creating favorable public opinions for the Putin-Biden meeting, may very well undermine its chance of success by coming up with tough measures to curb Russia. The director of Russia’s Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) once described NATO as the barrier to improving the relations between Russia and the West.
美俄两国存在着核心利益的严重冲突，短时间不可调和也难以建立互信，仅凭借一场峰会，很难打破两国之间的僵局。因此，美国和俄罗斯都发出对会晤不抱突破性进展的预期。
The US and Russia have intense conflicts over core interests, which cannot be mediated in the short term, and the two countries won’t be able to build mutual trust any time soon. A single meeting won’t make much of a difference for breaking the current stalemate, so neither of the two countries has high hopes for it.
