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American military's "integrated deterrence" hard to achieve expected effects

美军“一体化威慑”战略瞄准“大国竞争”预期效果恐难达成

来源:China Military Online 责任编辑:Wang Xinjuan
2021-08-02 16:40:12

方晓志

By Fang Xiaozhi

近日,在美国人工智能国家安全委员会举办的“全球新兴技术峰会”上,美国国防部长劳埃德•奥斯汀提出“一体化威慑”战略,宣称美国需在人工智能等新技术领域进行大规模创新和投资,确保技术优势,以应对所谓“大国竞争”。奥斯汀强调,这一战略将成为美国制定防务政策和军事战略的基石。

The US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin proposed the "integrated deterrence" strategy at the recent Global Emerging Technology Summit held by the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI), claiming that the US needs massive innovation and investment in emerging technologies like AI to maintain its technological superiority and cope with the so-called "major-country competition". Austin emphasized that the strategy will be the cornerstone for America’s defense policies and military strategies.

此次美国提出的“一体化威慑”概念,着眼大国在技术层面的竞争现实,突出人工智能、电磁频谱、无人系统等高新技术发展,将分散的多域作战部队与盟友力量进行联网,将技术、作战理念和各种能力进行融合,建立一支新的分散但高度联通的部队,并在一定程度上采取集体行动。

The "integrated deterrence" concept proposed by Austin focuses on the tech competition between major countries, with a special emphasis on high and new technologies like AI, electromagnetic spectrum, and unmanned systems. It means "working closely with our friends and partners" which are distributed across multiple domains, "using the right mix of technology, operational concepts, and capabilities—all woven together in a networked way", building a new distributed but highly connected force, and taking collective actions to some extent.

近年来,美国不断强调来自大国的安全威胁,其军事战略重点也从之前的反恐转向“大国竞争”。美国声称,在信息化时代,虽然以核威慑为主的传统威慑力量仍将继续发挥作用,但太空、信息和网络威慑的作用日益突出,只有在这些领域保持军事技术优势,才能在“大国竞争”中立于不败之地。

In recent years, the US has kept stressing security threats from major countries and has shifted its military strategic focus from counter terrorism to major-country competition. It claimed that although traditional deterrence, mainly nuclear deterrence, continues to work in the IT age, the deterrence of space, information and network becomes more prominent, and only by maintaining its military and technological advantage in those areas can it stand undefeated in the competition.

此外,美军称,新战略意在将美国及其盟友的优势结合起来,帮助美国有效应对全球威胁、大规模杀伤性武器威胁和各种低强度冲突等。

The US military also said its new strategy is aimed at uniting the US and its allies to help itself effectively tackle global challenges, threats from mass destruction weapons and various low-intensity conflicts.

由此可见,美提出“一体化威慑”战略的一个重要目标,是将盟友力量纳入其威慑体系,以达到预期威慑效果。这与美国当前正在打造的所谓“价值观同盟”如出一辙。同时,美军认为,受国防预算等因素影响,美军在核武库现代化、先进武器采购和高新技术研发等领域面临不少困难,现有平台和能力已无法有效满足其战略威慑和军事行动需求,因此希望借助盟国力量强化战略威慑。

It's clear that an important goal of Washington's "integrated deterrence" strategy is incorporating the allies into its deterrence system to create the expected effects, just like the so-called "value alliance" it is currently forging. Meanwhile, due to limited defense budget and other factors, the US military believed it is facing no small difficulties in modernizing its nuclear arsenal, purchasing advanced weapons, and developing high techs, and the current platforms and capabilities are no longer able to effectively meet its needs for strategic deterrence and military operations. That’s why it hopes to borrow the allies’ strengths to reinforce strategic deterrence.

从这个意义上来说,“一体化威慑”战略实际上也是当前拜登政府重构新型盟友体系的一项重要举措。其目的是通过与盟友进行优势互补,增加整体打击力量的规模和速度。特别是美国将通过与欧洲、太平洋等地区盟友在高新技术和网络领域的密切合作,打造联合作战体系,把美国的战略威慑变为共同战略威慑,形成可信、可靠、灵活的威慑能力。同时,美军也试图通过多国军事行动,解决近年来其在单边军事行动中出现的各种问题。

In this connection, the "integrated deterrence" strategy is also an important step for the Biden administration to reshuffle its ally system to increase the scale and speed of the overall operational force through complementarity. In particular, by working closely with its European and Pacific allies in fields of high technology and cyberspace, the US will forge a joint combat system and turn its own strategic deterrence into common, reliable, and flexible deterrence. The US military also tries to address the many problems appeared in its unilateral military operations through multilateral operations.

需要指出的是,美军新威慑战略能在多大程度上发挥作用,仍是未知数。由于美国过去多年投入大量资金进行无休止的反恐战争,短期内很难拥有绝对“多域制权”和超强威慑能力,可能让相关国家陷入群体性焦虑,影响对“一体化威慑”战略的信心和投入。同时,由于盟友水平和能力参差不齐,很难达到美国所提出的战略要求,也将使该战略所要达到的威慑效果大打折扣。这意味着,未来美“一体化威慑”战略的实施仍将面临挑战。

It must be pointed out that to what extent America's new deterrence strategy will take effect remains uncertain. The country has spent so much money in the past years on endless anti-terror wars that it's impossible for it to obtain absolute control in multiple domains and super strong deterrence in the short term, which may throw relevant countries into collective anxiety and impair their confidence and input in the "integrated deterrence" strategy. Besides, the uneven capabilities and strengths of the allies can hardly meet America’s strategic requirements and will also compromise the deterrent effects expected in the strategy. All in all, the implementation of America's "integrated deterrence" strategy will face many challenges going forward.

(作者单位:国防科技大学国际关系学院)

(The author is from the College of International Studies, National University of Defense Technology)