By Shu Meng, Song Yun
舒梦、宋昀
Israel launched a massive military operation in Jenin on the West Bank in early July, involving about 1,000 soldiers, assault UAVs, helicopters, tanks, and other weapons and equipment, which was called by many critics the largest military operation by Israeli forces on the West Bank in the past nearly 20 years.
7月上旬，以色列对约旦河西岸杰宁地区发起大规模军事行动，共有约1000名以色列士兵参与本次行动，以军还出动了攻击型无人机、直升机和坦克等武器装备。很多评论指出，该行动是近20年来，以军在约旦河西岸地区发起的规模最大的军事行动。
The operation was targeted at the Palestinian armed forces in Jenin to prevent the region from becoming a new anti-Israel base. Data from Israel show that in the past two years, about 50 shooting incidents against Israelis are related with Jenin, where a lot of anti-Israel militants gather, who have posed a serious threat to the authority of Israeli government and the security of its people. In the latest military operation, Israel Defense Forces aimed at places where Palestinian armed forces are concentrated and weapon depots. They also carried out air raids on the joint operations center in Jenin shared by various factions.
以色列发起此次军事行动，意在打击杰宁地区的巴勒斯坦武装力量，避免杰宁地区成为新的反以策源地。根据以方数据，过去两年约有50起针对以色列人的枪击事件与杰宁有关联，杰宁聚集着众多反以武装人员。对以色列来说，杰宁地区的巴勒斯坦武装力量已严重威胁到以色列的政府权威和公民安全。在此次军事行动中，以色列国防军将巴武装人员聚集地和武器仓库作为主要打击目标，并对杰宁市各武装派别共享的联合作战室进行空袭。
The operation is a reiteration of Israel's tough-line policy against Palestine. Recent years have seen Israel promoting its hard-right policy and taking an increasingly tough line toward Palestine. Its hard-right coalition government has kept expanding the Jewish settlements, which leads to a sharp increase in violence on the West Bank. On June 20, a shooting incident against Jews near a settlement prompted Tel Aviv to announce its plan to build another 1,000 apartments there. The heating up of conflict between the two sides has added more strain to their tension.
以军此次行动，也是再次宣示对巴勒斯坦的强硬政策。近年来，随着以色列国内极右翼政策继续推进，以方对巴勒斯坦的态度愈加强硬。以色列极右翼联合政府上台后，将定居点规模不断扩张，导致约旦河西岸的暴力事件激增。6月20日，一处犹太人定居点附近发生巴勒斯坦人针对犹太人的枪击事件。随后，以色列方面宣布在当地再建1000套新住宅的计划。在这种矛盾不断被激化的情况下，双方的紧张态势不断升级。
The latest military operation may be followed by some new trends in the Palestine-Israel hostility. In addition to Gaza, Jenin will become another key region of confrontation and conflict. Previously, direct conflicts between the two sides usually take place in the Gaza Strip, with six large-scale conflicts in the past decade. But in 2023 alone, Israel has attacked Jenin three times.
此次军事行动后，巴以双方的对峙可能出现新趋势，除加沙外，杰宁将成为双方对抗和冲突的又一个重点地区。此前，巴以之间的直接冲突主要发生在加沙地带。近10年来，巴以在加沙地带规模较大的冲突总计6次。而在2023年，以色列对杰宁的突袭就已有3次。
Apart from traditional factions such as the Islamic Jihad and Hamas, Jenin in the past two years has seen the emergence of new armed factions that are mainly comprised of young people who are good at using social media for publicity, and whose attacks against Israel are more covert and scattered compared with traditional factions. When the military operation drew to an end, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the operation in Jenin won't be a one-time thing, implying the possibility of more to come.
杰宁的武装派别，除了有伊斯兰圣战组织和哈马斯等传统派别外，近两年还出现了新武装派别。这些新武装派别主要由年轻人构成，他们善于利用社交媒体进行宣传，相比传统派别，他们对以色列的袭击更加隐蔽和分散。在本次军事行动接近尾声时，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡发表言论称，在杰宁的大规模军事行动并非一次性的，其暗示未来以色列或会再度针对杰宁发起袭击。
The operation has caused immense casualties in Palestine and further aroused the Palestinians' protest and hatred. Data from Palestine's health authorities indicate that the conflict has killed at least 12 Palestinians and injured more than 140, with 40 in serious conditions.
以色列的这次军事行动，给巴方造成重大人员伤亡，进一步激起了巴勒斯坦人的反抗和仇恨情绪。根据巴勒斯坦卫生部发布的数据，这次冲突至少造成12名巴勒斯坦人死亡、140多人受伤，其中40人伤势严重。
After the surprise attack, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas announced that they will stop all engagement and contact with Israel. Two days after the Israeli troops left Jenin, five rocket projectiles were fired from Gaza Strip and landed within Israeli territory, and an Israeli died in a shooting incident near a Jewish settlement on the West Bank. The seemingly ceaseless violent conflicts have pushed even farther away the prospect of peace talks between the two sides.
巴勒斯坦总统阿巴斯在以军发起突袭后宣布，停止同以色列方面的“所有接触和会晤”。以军撤离杰宁后的两天，5枚火箭弹从加沙地带射向以色列境内，约旦河西岸的一个犹太人定居点附近发生枪击事件，造成一名以色列人死亡。反反复复的暴力冲突，让巴以和谈难上加难。
If neither Palestine nor Israel can find a breach point for détente soon, it's possible that more people living on the West Bank will turn to support the pro-war forces, which may plan more attacks against Israel, only to court fiercer retaliation in return, and skirmishes may very well trigger larger-scale conflicts and confrontation. The vicious cycle of violence that Palestine and Israel find themselves deeply mired in has made ease of tension impossible between Israel and other Arabic countries, thus leaving the Middle East situation in limbo.
未来，如果巴以双方迟迟找不到缓和关系的突破口，约旦河西岸恐会有更多民众转而支持主战派，这些主战派可能会对以色列策划更多的袭击事件，进而招致以色列更为猛烈的报复。这些小规模的冲突事件，很可能引发更大规模的冲突和对抗。巴以深陷暴力冲突的恶性循环，使以色列与其他阿拉伯国家之间的关系无法实现真正的缓和，中东地区局势也将因此充满不确定性。
(The authors are from The Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University)
（作者单位：上海外国语大学中东研究所）
