By Lyu Yunmou
吕蕴谋
Recently, the Hungarian parliament has approved Sweden's bid to join NATO by a vote of 188 to 6. This marks that Sweden's NATO membership has been unequivocal, and the alliance will have its 32nd member state on the occasion of its 75th anniversary.
近日，匈牙利国会以188票赞成、6票反对的投票结果，批准瑞典加入北约议定书的议案。这标志着瑞典的北约成员身份已无悬念，北约也即将在其成立75周年之际迎来第32个成员。
Why does the neutral country veer to the military alliance?
“中立国”缘何转向军事联盟
Capitalizing on its geographically advantageous position and easily defendable terrains, Sweden has enjoyed nearly two centuries of prosperity and peace, claiming that it has not been involved in any war since 1814. Thus, it is one of the few European countries involved in World War II but emerged with its military power and economic base intact.
得益于得天独厚的地理位置、易守难攻的地貌特征，瑞典坐享了近两个世纪的繁荣与和平，声称自身“从1814年以来就没有参与过任何战争”，也因而成为二战中欧洲为数不多完整保存国防力量和经济基础的国家。
However, as the fallout from the Ukraine crisis has extended to the fringes of the European continent, Sweden's sense of security has diminished dramatically, leading to a heightened demand for collective defense. However, the EU is moving at a slow pace for the building of the European Defense Union and lacks effectiveness in delivering on its promise made in the mutual assistance clause, which says that "if an EU country is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other EU countries have an obligation to aid and assist it by all the means in their power." Therefore, Sweden has set its sight on NATO.
但随着乌克兰危机的影响蔓延到欧洲大陆边缘，瑞典安全感急剧降低，对于集体防御的需求有所上升。而欧盟“防务联盟”建设进展缓慢，欧盟互助条款“如果成员国领土内发生武装袭击，其它成员国有义务向其提供各种形式的援助”承诺的实效不足，因此，瑞典将目光移向了北约。
In addition, the role of Finland in the accession of Sweden cannot be disregarded. Unlike Sweden that is situated across the sea from Russia, Finland shares a land border stretching for 1,300 kilometers with Russia. With a heightened sense of insecurity after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, Finland has actively advocated for accession to NATO. Therefore, the country not only regards NATO membership as a remedy for addressing its own security concerns, but also constantly incites Sweden to apply for the membership, in a bid to ease its burdens around Russia.
此外，瑞典入约的“芬兰因素”同样不可忽视。同瑞典与俄罗斯“隔海相望”不同，芬兰与俄罗斯拥有长达1300公里的陆地边界，在乌克兰危机爆发后不安全感更深，在“入约”事项上也更积极。因此，芬兰不仅视加入北约为解决自身安全焦虑的“良药”，还不断怂恿瑞典一起提出“入约”申请，以期分担来自俄罗斯的压力。
Therefore, amidst the interplay of various factors, following the Finnish government's declaration to apply for NATO membership on May 16, 2022, Sweden's then-Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson also announced the formal decision to do likewise.
因此，在多重因素作用下，2022年5月16日，芬兰政府决定申请加入北约的一天后，瑞典时任首相安德松也宣布正式决定加入北约。
NATO expansion only undermines European security
北约气焰更盛，欧洲只会更不安全
If we perceive Finland's entry as placing NATO at the doorstep of Russia, then Sweden's admission can be said to fill in the last puzzle piece in northern Europe for NATO, pushing the frontier zones forward and fueling arrogance for the alliance.
如果说芬兰“入约”是将北约送到了俄罗斯家门口，瑞典“入约”则是补上北约在北欧的“最后一块拼图”，为“前沿地带”提供了纵深，北约的气焰或将更盛。
First, Sweden's admission ensures seamless replenishment and support in the northeast flank for NATO, providing Finland and the Baltic countries with a reliable backbone in the presence of Russia. Anna Wieslander, director for Northern Europe at the US think tank Atlantic Council , pointed out that the main tasks for Sweden are to defend the airspace security of the Baltic Sea and serve as replenishment and support staging ground of equipment, ammunition, field hospitals and other resources for the US and NATO.
首先，瑞典的加入畅通了北约对于东北翼的补给与支援通道，让芬兰及波罗的海国家面对俄罗斯时“背有所依”。美智库大西洋理事会北欧研究主任威斯兰德指出，瑞典的主要任务是保卫波罗的海的空中安全，并作为美国及北约装备、弹药、野战医院等的“补给增援集结地”。
Second, Sweden's strong defense capabilities will boost the confidence of Eastern European countries in dealing with Russia. Compared with the robust land force of Finland (900,000 active and reserve personnel), Sweden excels in the air force and naval strength, fostering an effective complement to the former and adding positive assets for NATO. After the outburst of the Ukraine crisis, Sweden strengthened its military deployment in Gotland, which poses direct threats to the Russian Navy's activities in the Baltic Sea, especially for its fleet based in Kaliningrad.
其次，瑞典防务实力强劲，能将让东翼国家面对俄罗斯时“更有底气”。与芬兰雄厚的陆军实力相比（现役加预备役人员数量达90万），瑞典在空军与海军实力方面较为领先，能和芬兰形成有效互补，是北约的“正资产”。乌克兰危机爆发后，瑞典还强化了其在哥得兰岛的军事部署，这对俄海军尤其是其部署于加里宁格勒的舰队在波罗的海的活动构成直接威胁。
For Europe, the contraction of the neutral zones is inevitably accompanied by the collapse of its strategic autonomy space. Historically, the Nordic countries had acted as mediators in the conflicts between Russia and the West, but the overall development of the European version of NATO will further reinforce the opposition between Russia and Europe, making it more difficult to achieve a stable and sustainable European security framework.
对于欧洲而言，中立地带的缩小也必然伴随战略自主空间的坍缩。历史上，北欧国家多次在俄罗斯与西方的冲突中扮演“协调者”角色，而欧洲整体走向“北约化”将进一步固化俄欧对立局面，稳定、可持续的欧洲安全框架恐更难企及。
Joining NATO is a policy preference oriented towards safeguarding self-interests for Sweden, but it should not be achieved by excessively squeezing the security spaces of other countries. Otherwise, Europe will only find itself in a more vulnerable position. For this, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova responded that the country will closely monitor Sweden's role in NATO and will "shape our policy and implement reciprocal measures, both in the military-technical aspects and other areas, to counteract any threat to Russia's national security that may result as a consequence". Amid the continuous onslaught of black swan and gray rhino incidents, Europe, where strategies, thoughts and theories have consistently evolved, should critically examine its own security concept.
加入北约是瑞典谋求自身安全的政策选择，但自身安全不能以一味挤压他国安全空间为代价，否则欧洲只会“更不安全”。本次，俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃就回应称，俄罗斯会密切关注瑞典在北约中的作用，“将采取军事技术和其他性质的报复性措施”。在各种“黑天鹅”“灰犀牛”事件交替冲击的时代，素来战略、思想、理论辈出的欧洲应当好好反思自身的安全观。
(The author is the head of the Europe security program with the Institute of European Studies of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.)
(作者为中国现代国际关系研究院欧洲所欧洲安全项目负责人)
Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
