By Huang Jiayu, Xu Juanjuan
黄嘉瑜 徐娟娟
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on August 14 that he will not run for the September presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which means he will step down as prime minister after a new LDP president is elected. During Kishida's term, Japan has been trying tirelessly to break away from the post-WWII system and accelerate its military development, displaying a series of dangerous tendencies in strategic adjustment, operations, and military buildup.
8月14日，日本首相岸田文雄宣布，将不参加9月举行的自民党总裁选举。这意味着自民党新总裁选出后，岸田将退任日本首相。回顾岸田执政这些年，日本不断试图摆脱战后体制，加速军事力量调整与发展，在战略调整、作战运用和军力建设等方面呈现一系列危险动向。
In terms of strategic adjustment, Japan has issued a series of strategic documents to quicken the transformation of its defense policy. After Kishida came into power, Tokyo rolled out various documents to make major adjustments to relevant strategies. At the end of 2022, it adopted three new security documents – the National Security Strategy (NSS), the National Defense Strategy (NDS), and the Defense Buildup Program, declaring its commitment to obtaining the ability to attack enemies. Later, the Defense Technology Guideline 2023 and the Basic Policy on Enhancing Defense Production and Technology Bases provided policy support for implementing the new security and defense strategies.
在战略调整上，出台系列战略文件加速防卫政策转型。岸田政府上台以来，接连出台各类文件，对相关战略做出较大调整。2022年底，日本政府正式通过新版《国家安全保障战略》《国家防卫战略》和《防卫力量整备计划》三份安保政策文件，提出日本将致力于拥有对敌攻击能力等政策主张。随后，日本公布《防卫技术指针2023》和《防卫生产基础强化法》等，为新版安保和防卫战略落地提供切实政策支撑。
Moreover, the Defense White Paper 2023 specified seven fields of the fundamental enhancement of defense capabilities, including stand-off defense, integrated air and missile defense, and unmanned defense. The white paper, Defense of Japan 2024, further pointed out that the enhancement of relevant capabilities will shore up JSDF's short links in command and control, long-distance strikes, and logistics and replenishments, and reinforce its core capabilities such as unmanned defense, so as to maximize the usage of existing weapons and equipment to effect JSDF's fundamental change from being a "shield" to a "spear".
此外，在2023年版《防卫白皮书》明确日本自卫队着重强化防区外防卫、综合防空反导、无人系统防卫等七大作战能力的基础上，2024年版《防卫白皮书》进一步提出，相关能力提升将逐步补齐自卫队在指挥控制、远程打击和后勤补给等方面的短板，增强无人装备防卫等核心能力，以便最大限度地利用现有武器装备，实现自卫队由“盾”向“矛”的根本性转变。
In terms of operations, Japan has stepped up its real-combat capabilities based on its actual situations. With the adjustment of the defense strategies, JSDF has continuously catered to actual operational needs, with a special focus on medium-and-long-range strikes, air and missile defense, and island-seizing operations that are highly relevant in real combat. The Kishida administration has especially promoted the construction of military strongholds on the southwestern islands, proposing that the JSDF should be able to quickly reach the islands in case of emergency by the fiscal year of 2027 at the latest.
在作战运用上，强调立足自身条件强化实战意味。随着防卫战略调整，日本自卫队不断贴近作战实际需求，重点关注中远程打击、防空反导和夺岛作战等领域，实战意味日趋浓厚。尤其在西南诸岛方向，岸田政府更是持续推进军事据点建设，提出最晚至2027财年，日本自卫队可在出现突发事态时迅速赶赴西南诸岛。
In terms of military deployment, Japan stresses overall balance and agile maneuvers with a focus on the southwest direction. It has deployed a large number of troops on the southwestern islands, including Okinawa and Yaeyama, to enhance its control over the islands and the adjacent sea and airspace. In preparations and planning, Japan has set about forming an amphibious mobile brigade and reorganizing its ground troops for rapid response. At the same time, it has organized desktop and realistic "island-seizing" exercises to verify its defense and operational vision on the southwestern islands and enhance its off-island combat capabilities.
在军力部署上，日本强调采取总体均衡、机动运用、突出西南方向的战略布势，在冲绳、八重山等西南诸岛集中部署部队，以增强对西南诸岛及周边海空域的控制能力。在力量准备和方案设计上，其一方面着手组建两栖机动作战旅，实施地面部队的快反化改编，另一方面则通过组织兵棋推演和实兵“联合夺岛”演练，检验“西南诸岛防卫作战构想”，并通过联合演训，公开强化“离岛作战”能力。
In terms of military development, Japan is aiming to fundamentally fortify its defense forces. To make Japan a so-called "military power", the Kishida administration has constantly increased the defense budget and security and defense investment. Japan's defense budget has been growing for 12 years in a row. The Defense White Paper 2023 proposed to increase the budget further to 2% of GDP in the next five years, on a par with NATO's defense budget level. It is said that Japan has already accomplished 42% of the budget hike as its defense expenditure is poised to reach 8.9 trillion Yen in the fiscal year of 2024, or 1.6% of GDP.
在军力建设上，图谋“从根本上强化防卫力量”。为向所谓的“军事大国”迈进，岸田政府不断调增防卫预算，加大安保防卫领域投入。当前，日本已实现防卫预算连续12年增长。2023年版《防卫白皮书》提出对标北约，未来5年实现防卫预算占GDP总值2%的目标。据称，该计划如今已实施约42%，预计2024财年日本防卫支出将达到8.9万亿日元，占GDP比重达1.6%。
In addition to the incessant increase in the defense budget, the Kishida administration has also actively fostered aggressive military capabilities to, as it alleges, enhance its independent defense, in an attempt to form deterrence by taking preemptive steps. At the moment, the JSDF is purchasing more aggressive weapons while upgrading the traditional strategic weapons, fostering new combat forces, and developing high-tech equipment at a faster pace, so as to enhance its operational capabilities across the board.
不仅如此，在防卫预算连年增加的支持下，岸田政府声称要强化自主防卫，积极打造进攻性军事能力，试图通过先发制人的打击形成威慑。目前，日本自卫队在加大力度采购进攻型武器的同时，还在加快传统战略性武器升级改造，加速建设新型作战力量并研发高技术装备，试图全方位多领域提升自卫队作战能力。
While it is trying all means to break the restrictions of the Pacifist Constitution and hollow out the "exclusively defense-oriented policy", Japan has embarked on a development path deviating wildly from the pacifist route. Considering that Tokyo has never truly and sincerely reflected on its aggressive history and war crimes, its current dangerous moves in the military and security domains are indeed unsettling its Asian neighbors and the international community and call for high vigilance from all parties.
千方百计突破和平宪法框架，不断掏空专守防卫原则，日本的国家发展已严重背离和平主义路线。鉴于日本始终缺乏对侵略历史和战争罪责的深刻反省，其在军事安全领域的危险动向，着实令亚洲邻国和国际社会感到担忧，应当引起各方高度警惕。
(The authors are from the PLA Academy of Military Science)
（作者单位：军事科学院）
