Russian and Ukrainian delegations held their first direct talks in over three years on May 16 in Istanbul, Turkey. Details of the negotiations have emerged recently, revealing an agreement to swap 1,000 prisoners of war each and a willingness, in principle, to continue dialogue and negotiations. Following the talks, Russia expressed overall satisfaction with the results, while Ukraine voiced dissatisfaction. Besides, on May 19 local time, US President Donald Trump held separate phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, urging both sides to agree to a ceasefire. Does this difficult step forward after three years mark a substantive breakthrough in Russia-Ukraine talks?
俄罗斯和乌克兰代表团于当地时间5月16日在土耳其伊斯坦布尔举行双方3年多来的首次直接谈判。相关谈判细节近日陆续曝光，双方就互换1000名战俘达成共识，同时“原则上”愿意继续接触和谈判。俄方在会后表示对谈判结果总体满意，而乌方则表示不满。此外，当地时间5月19日，美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京、乌克兰总统泽连斯基分别通话，敦促双方达成停火。那么，俄乌时隔3年迈出的艰难一步，是否取得了实质性突破？
At the start of the negotiations, Russian presidential aide and head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, told the Ukrainian team that Russia would only discuss a ceasefire and other issues if Ukraine withdrew its troops from Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions. Ukraine, on the other hand, insisted on a ceasefire first, followed by negotiations. Military observer Teng Jianqun believes that although the negotiations were fraught with complications and the demands of Russia and Ukraine remain far apart, the outcome still represents a step forward in addressing the conflict.
在此次谈判伊始，俄罗斯总统助理、俄乌谈判俄方代表团团长梅金斯基便告诉乌克兰代表团，只有乌克兰从扎波罗热、赫尔松、顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克地区撤军，俄方才会讨论停火和其他问题；而乌克兰则主张先停火、后谈判。军事观察员滕建群认为，尽管此次谈判过程一波三折，且俄乌双方诉求差异巨大，但谈判结果对解决俄乌问题仍具有一定推进作用。
He noted that both sides were bargaining high by putting forward their maximal positions in this round of talks. Russia hopes to resume talks based on the framework of the Istanbul negotiations held in March 2022, but Ukraine clearly disagrees. The core differences between the two sides lie in issues such as territorial control and Ukraine's potential neutral status. In essence, whether to implement a ceasefire before negotiations or negotiate before a ceasefire is a matter of stance rather than substance. Fundamentally, the fact that Russia and Ukraine have returned to the negotiating table is itself a significant step forward. Going forward, Russia and Ukraine may step up communication, and the pace of future negotiations could accelerate.
军事观察员滕建群分析称，在这轮谈判中，俄乌双方都在“要高价”，提出了各自的最高目标。俄罗斯希望以2022年3月的伊斯坦布尔谈判为基础，而乌克兰显然不同意。双方的主要分歧在于领土归属、乌克兰的中立地位等问题。事实上，无论是先停火还是先谈判，这都只是双方态度层面的分歧。从根本上看，俄乌双方能够重回谈判桌，这本身就是巨大进展。接下来，俄乌之间可能会加强沟通，未来的谈判进程或将“提速”。
However, even as talks resume, the situation on the battlefield remains deadlocked. According to the Russian defense ministry, Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks and launched counteroffensives in multiple directions, including Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Ukrainian troops repelled multiple Russian offensives in the Pokrovsk direction. According to Teng Jianqun, the standoff on the battlefield is likely to persist as both sides seek to strengthen their bargaining positions.
就在俄乌重启谈判的同时，战场形势依然胶着。俄罗斯国防部称，俄军在苏梅、哈尔科夫、顿涅茨克、扎波罗热等多个方向击退乌军进攻，并展开反攻。乌克兰武装部队总参谋部则通报称，乌军在波克罗夫斯克方向多次击退俄军进攻。在滕建群看来，俄乌双方为争取谈判筹码，战场上的对峙仍将继续。
He noted that in the near term, Russian forces are expected to intensify their offensives to consolidate control over eastern Ukraine, fulfill the objectives of the second phase of their "special military operation," and secure greater leverage at the negotiating table. Ukrainian forces, for their part, are expected to mount a staunch resistance, as the outcome of any negotiations will ultimately be shaped by the situation on the battlefield.
滕建群指出，未来一段时间，俄军势必会加强战场上的进攻力度，以巩固对乌东地区的有效控制，确保实现第二阶段特别军事行动目标，保证自己在谈判桌上拥有更多筹码。而乌军势必顽强抵抗，毕竟谈判成果最终取决于战场态势。
With no substantial progress made in the Russia-Ukraine talks and fighting still ongoing, US President Donald Trump stated that he had spoken separately with President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky by phone, urging both sides to agree to a ceasefire. Teng said that despite the continued involvement of the US in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Trump administration has played a limited role in actually resolving the crisis.
在俄乌谈判无实质性进展，且战事仍在持续的情况下，美国总统特朗普表示，分别与普京和泽连斯基通话，敦促双方达成停火。滕建群认为，尽管美国不断介入俄乌冲突，但在实际解决冲突的问题上，特朗普政府发挥的作用十分有限。
Donald Trump currently has two main considerations. On one hand, he seeks to assert leadership in mediating the conflict to fulfill his campaign promises. On the other hand, he aims to further improve US-Russia relations. Initially, he attempted to strike a deal with Russia and pressure Ukraine into accepting it, but both Ukraine and European nations rejected his proposal. Now, he is trying to position himself as a mediator. However, since Russia and Ukraine are the primary parties to the conflict, the US has limited ability to directly influence its course.
滕建群表示，特朗普目前有两方面考虑：第一，他试图展示自身在俄乌冲突调停中的主导地位，以兑现其竞选承诺；第二，他希望进一步改善美俄关系。特朗普最初试图与俄罗斯达成协议，并迫使乌克兰接受，但乌克兰和欧洲均未接受其方案。如今，特朗普试图扮演调停者的角色，但俄乌冲突的当事方是俄罗斯和乌克兰，因此美国难以直接影响俄乌冲突的走向。
Editor's Note: Originally published on military.cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
