舒 梦
By Shu Meng
近日，伊朗国内多地遭遇一系列袭击，遇袭目标包括军工厂等重要军事设施。这些袭击不仅反映出伊朗面临的复杂外交局面和安全压力，也折射出中东地区局势的复杂与敏感。
Many places in Iran have suffered a series of attacks recently. The targets of the attacks include military factories and other important military facilities. These attacks reflect the complex diplomatic situation and security pressure facing Iran, as well as the complexity and sensitivity of the situation in the Middle East.
这些袭击事件的幕后主使尚无法确定，但有分析指出美国和以色列应为这一系列袭击负责。联系美以的对伊立场，这两国被怀疑也在情理之中。先看美国，为震慑伊朗，美国曾多次采取行动。此轮袭击主要由无人机完成，且发生在伊核协议谈判未果和伊朗向俄罗斯提供武器的背景下，带有明显的“敲打”意味。此外，美国国务卿布林肯日前表示“不排除采取军事行动阻止伊朗获得核武器的可能性”，此轮袭击又恰好发生在布林肯访问以色列之际。再看以色列，为阻碍伊核协议谈判进程、遏制伊朗的核武器和国防工业发展，以色列有对伊朗发动此类袭击的足够动机。去年底，内塔尼亚胡重掌以色列政权后，以色列对伊朗的态度更加强硬。
The mastermind behind these attacks has yet to be determined. However, some analysts point out that the US and Israel should be responsible for the series of attacks. Considering the US and Israel's stances on Iran, it is reasonable to take the two as suspects. The US had taken various actions in order to deter Iran. This round of attacks was mainly carried out by drones, and the backdrop is the failed negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal and Iran's supply of weapons to Russia. The attacks send a clear signal of warning. In addition, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said a few days ago that the possibility of taking military action to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out. This round of attacks happened just as Blinken was visiting Israel. In order to hinder the negotiation process of the Iran nuclear deal and curb the development of Iran's nuclear weapons and defense industry, Israel has sufficient motives to launch such attacks. Moreover, Israel's stance on Iran has become tougher after Benjamin Netanyahu regained power at the end of last year.
当前，伊朗面临的外部压力不断增加，和俄乌冲突有很大关系。此前，一些西方国家认为伊核协议谈判是阻止伊朗研制核武器的有效途径。俄乌冲突爆发后，西方关注的焦点从阻止伊朗拥核变成应对俄罗斯，这一定程度上给伊核问题带来了缓和空间。然而，伊朗向俄罗斯出售无人机等武器，这些无人机又被用在了乌克兰战场，让伊朗完全站在了西方的对立面。因此，向伊朗强硬施压，削弱其支持俄罗斯的意愿和能力，便成为西方国家的重要选项。
Currently, Iran is facing increasing external pressure, which has a lot to do with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Previously, some Western countries believed that the negotiation of the Iran nuclear deal was an effective way to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the focus of the West shifted from preventing Iran from possessing nuclear weapons to dealing with Russia, which brought room for relaxation of the Iranian nuclear issue to a certain extent. However, Iran sold drones and other weapons to Russia, and these drones were used on the Ukrainian battlefield. This has put Iran completely on the opposite side of the West. Therefore, putting tough pressure on Iran and weakening its willingness and capability to support Russia has become an important option for Western countries.
此轮袭击事件发生后，伊朗可能会采取一定的报复作为回应。不过，由于伊朗在袭击中的实际损失有限，再加上军事实力与美国和以色列相比存在差距，其报复可能会通过挫败间谍活动等方式进行，而不是较大规模的军事报复行动。即便如此，此轮袭击对于地区局势的影响依然不容小觑。 \
Iran may take some retaliation in response after this round of attacks. However, due to the limited actual losses and the gap in military strength compared with the US and Israel, its retaliation may be carried out by foiling espionage activities instead of large-scale military retaliation. Even so, the impact of this round of attacks on the regional situation should not be underestimated.
伊核协议谈判前景黯淡。2021年4月以来，伊核协议相关方断断续续举行了多轮谈判，并多次宣称取得进展。2022年8月，欧盟向谈判参与方提交了一份关于恢复履行伊核协议的“最终文本”，但美伊对这一文本互相交换书面意见之后，谈判进程开始裹足不前。此轮袭击事件或将激起伊朗国内的反美情绪，使伊朗与西方的关系更加恶化。面对美国的强硬态度和以色列的推波助澜，伊核协议谈判的恢复会更加困难。
The prospects for the Iran nuclear deal negotiations are bleak. The relevant parties to the Iran nuclear deal held multiple rounds of negotiations on and off since April 2021 and repeatedly claimed progress made. In August 2022, the European Union submitted to the negotiating parties a "final text" to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. However, after the US and Iran exchanged written opinions on this text, the negotiation process began to stall. This round of attacks may arouse anti-America sentiment in Iran and worsen the relationship between Iran and the West. The resumption of the negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal will be more difficult because of the tough attitude of the US and Israel's "fueling the flames" actions.
中东地区局势愈发紧张。此轮袭击过后，伊朗面临的压力更加凸显，与以色列和阿拉伯国家之间的紧张关系或将加剧。美国在中东地区推动构建对抗伊朗的盟友体系，将进一步导致地区阵营对立。此外，伊朗高调支持巴勒斯坦，也给地区局势增添了变数。在此背景下，中东国家围绕意识形态和地区主导权的斗争将不断上演，中东地区“由乱向治”的进程道阻且长。
The situation in the Middle East will become increasingly intense. After this round of attacks, the pressure on Iran has become more prominent, and tensions with Israel and Arab countries may intensify. The US is promoting the establishment of an alliance system against Iran in the Middle East, which will further lead to confrontation among regional camps. In addition, Iran's high-profile support for Palestine has also added variables to the regional situation. In this context, Middle Eastern countries will continue to contest for ideological and regional dominance, and the process of "turning chaos into governance" in the Middle East will be long and difficult.
