By Shao Yishu and Duan Ting
邵逸舒 段 挺
The potential ownership of Greenland has become one of the focal points of divergence between the US and Europe in recent days. The European Commission recently published its draft of the long-term budget, which proposed to more than double its financial support for Greenland, raising from EUR 225 million in 2021-2027 to EUR 530 million in 2028-2034. The funding will be used for cooperation between the EU and the island in critical raw materials and energy. According to some analysts, it represents the latest move of the EU in the game over Greenland with the US, and reveals its strategic intent of supporting its member states to safeguard their own stability and preserve Europe's overall security and development interests.
近期以来，格陵兰岛的归属走向成为美欧矛盾的焦点之一。欧盟委员会日前发布联合长期预算草案，拟对格陵兰岛的拨款增加一倍以上，从2021至2027年间的2.25亿欧元提升到2028至2034年间的5.3亿欧元，用于欧盟与该岛在关键原材料和能源方面的合作。分析人士认为，欧盟此举是围绕格陵兰岛与美国展开博弈的最新举措，展现了支持成员国维护自身稳定和维护欧洲整体安全与发展利益的战略意图。
Greenland, as an autonomous territory of Denmark, is located at the strategic junction connecting the Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic Ocean. However, the US has long stationed troops and operated military bases there since World War II, exerting de facto influence over the security and military control of the island. Previously, the Trump administration, citing national security concerns, repeatedly threatened that use of force would not be ruled out for the purpose of seizing control of Greenland and asked the Department of Defense to plan for the transfer of the area of responsibility of the island from the US European Command to the US Northern Command. Senior US government officials, including US Vice President JD Vance, inspected the island to create permissive environments. According to recent Danish media reports, there were frequent travels by several Americans between the US and Greenland, attempting to strengthen Greenland’s affiliation with the US through ways including establishing private networks and infiltrating the local society. The series of steps taken by the US against Greenland has fueled the rise of separatist sentiments in Greenland, imposing significant pressure on Denmark and the EU.
格陵兰岛地处大西洋与北冰洋战略要冲，是丹麦自治领地。但美国自二战以来长期在此驻军并建有军事基地，对该岛的安全和军事控制拥有实质性影响力。此前，特朗普政府以国家安全为由，多次扬言不排除使用武力控制格陵兰岛，并要求国防部筹划将该岛从美军欧洲司令部防区划归北方司令部。包括美国副总统万斯在内的多位政府高级官员先后到该岛“踩点”造势。近期丹麦媒体报道称，有多名美国人频繁往返美国和格陵兰岛，试图通过建立私人网络、渗透当地社会等方式，推动格陵兰岛对美国的依附。美国觊觎格陵兰岛的一系列举动，刺激了格陵兰岛分离主义抬头，给丹麦及欧盟造成巨大压力。
Denmark and the EU, with themselves deeply embroiled in security quagmires, seek to maintain stable relations with the US through engagement on the one hand, and accelerate deployment of countermeasures to deny the intention of the US on the other hand. The relevant measures taken by the EU are as follows.
深陷安全困境的丹麦和欧盟，一边与美国周旋，力图稳住美欧关系，一边加紧布局反制，争取不让美国得手。
First, it enhances the influence on Greenland and contains the development of the emerging trend of exiting the EU. Despite its repeated statements of support for Denmark in defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity, the EU is unable to provide practical support at the security and military level. Therefore, the EU intends to demonstrate its attention to Greenland's development by significantly increasing financial aid and expanding investments in energy, critical minerals, informatization, education and other fields, aiming to pacify the Greenlanders and mitigate their long-standing dissatisfaction with the EU. At the same time, it also contributes to increasing the difficulty and cost for the US to incite separatist tendencies on the island, thereby resisting the influence and infiltration exerted by the US.
首先，增强对格陵兰岛影响，遏制其“脱欧”态势发展。尽管欧盟多次表态支持丹麦捍卫主权和领土完整，却无力在安全与军事层面给予实际支持。于是，欧盟有意通过大幅增加财政拨款，强化对能源、关键矿产、信息化、教育等方面的投入，彰显对其发展的重视，以此安抚格陵兰人，减少长期以来其对欧盟的不满。同时，这也有助于增加美国煽动岛内分离倾向的难度和成本，抵制美国对该岛的影响渗透。
Second, it seeks to seize the right to explore strategic resources and reduce dependence on external countries. Greenland has rich reserves of oil, gas and minerals. Among the 34 critical raw materials in the list prescribed by the EU, 25 types have been discovered and proven in Greenland. Previously, both the EU and the US have expressed investment intentions regarding resource exploitation in Greenland. This May, Greenland's minister for business and mineral resources publicly called on the US and Europe to increase investment in Greenland's mining industry. To reduce the risk of relying on external sources for strategic resources, the EU subsequently reached two mineral investment agreements with Greenland, with energy and critical minerals exploitation prioritized in the funding proposal, reflecting the urgency of taking action ahead of the US.
其次，抢占战略资源开发权，降低对外依赖度。格陵兰岛油气资源和矿产储备丰富，在欧盟确定的34种关键原材料清单中，有25个种类已在格陵兰岛探明发现。此前，欧盟和美国均多次就格陵兰岛资源开发表达投资意向。今年5月，格陵兰商业和矿产资源部长公开呼吁美欧加大对其采矿业投资。为降低战略资源对外依赖的风险，欧盟之后便与格陵兰岛达成两项矿产投资协议，并在此次拨款提案中将能源和关键矿产开发作为重点，折射出抢先于美国出手的紧迫感。
Third, it highlights the importance of overseas territories and the intention of preventing the shrinkage of strategic interests. Currently, 13 Overseas Countries and Territories (OCTs) are associated with the EU, with Greenland being one of these OCTs that have been regarded by the EU as an important extension of its strategic interests for a long time. The EU's increased investment in Greenland has sent a political signal that the island is of increasing strategic importance to the EU. For the EU, with climate warming, the Arctic region will become a potential "critical battlefield" in the future. Greenland, with its unique geographical location and rich resource reserves, will play a key role in "anchoring" the Arctic and ensuring the supply of critical raw materials.
再次，彰显域外领土重要性，预防战略利益缩水。目前，欧盟共有包括格陵兰岛在内的13处域外领土。长期以来，这些域外领土被欧盟视为自身战略利益向外延伸的重要触角。此次欧盟加大对格陵兰岛投入释放了一个政治信号——该岛的战略重要性正在不断增长。对欧盟而言，随着气候变暖，北极地区未来将成为“关键战场”，而格陵兰岛凭借独特的地理位置和资源储备，将在“锚定”北极以及确保关键原材料供应方面发挥重要作用。
Next, the draft budget will come into effect after unanimous agreement by the EU member states and approval by the European Parliament. Given the rise of right-wing political parties in Europe and the growing calls for prioritizing national interests, the EU's significant increase in funding for Greenland may encounter obstruction from certain member states. Furthermore, the Trump administration possibly regards the EU "throwing money" at Greenland as a challenge "against the US". Thus, there is no reason to deny that the US will once again suppress and retaliate against the EU and related countries on the pretext of national security. Then the game between the US and Europe over the island will undoubtedly intensify further.
下一步，预算草案需要经过欧盟成员国一致同意，并获得欧洲议会通过才能生效。考虑到欧洲右翼政党崛起和要求优先考虑本国利益的呼声增大，欧盟大幅增加对格陵兰岛拨款可能面临一些成员国的阻挠。此外，欧盟向格陵兰岛“砸钱”，还可能被特朗普政府视为“针对美国”发起的挑战。不排除美国再次以国家安全为由，对欧盟及相关国家打压报复。届时，美欧围绕该岛的博弈势必继续加剧。
