Recent US-Iran nuclear talks have experienced ebbs and flows, with alternate signals of tension and relaxation released from the negotiation table representing the uncertainty of the course of Iran's nuclear program. Nevertheless, the principal contradiction of this issue has remained unchanged though disguised by the ever-changing appearance.
近期的美伊核谈判可谓一波三折，时而紧张、时而缓和的信号不断从谈判桌上传出，体现了伊核问题走向的扑朔迷离。但在瞬息万变的表象背后，伊核问题的主要矛盾一直未变。
Considering the four rounds of talks held by the US and Iran, the talks have proceeded into the most difficult stage of core importance, namely the discussion around the future survival of Iran's nuclear capabilities. On the US side, although the Trump administration has shown a positive willingness to negotiate, it has been escalating its extreme sanctions against Iran, showing the "negotiations under pressure" methodology applied by the US without any fundamental change. Meanwhile, the US has not yielded on the issue of enriched uranium, insisting on its ultimate goal of Iran's self-disarmament and complete abandonment of the prospect of possessing nuclear weapons. This position contradicts Iran's long-term pursuit of an independent nuclear foreign policy, therefore lacking a positive response from the Iranian side.
从美伊已举行的四轮谈判来看，双方谈判已进入最核心、也是最困难的阶段，即讨论未来伊朗核能力的存续问题。美国方面，尽管特朗普政府展现出积极的谈判意愿，但仍不断升级对伊朗的极限制裁，美“以压促谈”的手段未发生根本性变化。与此同时，美国在浓缩铀问题上并未让步，其最终目的仍是伊朗“自废武功”，完全放弃拥有核武器的可能性。这一立场与伊朗长期谋求的独立自主核外交政策相悖，自然得不到伊朗方面的积极回应。
On the Iranian side, the unaligned statements among top government officials reflect serious divisions within the senior leadership. A senior adviser once said that Iran was willing to give up weapons-grade highly enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief by the US side. Later, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated differently that Iran would never stop uranium enrichment activities and accused the US of "completely unreasonable" demands.
伊朗方面，政府高层的表态相互龃龉反映了伊高层内部存在严重分歧。一名高级顾问曾表示，伊朗愿放弃武用高浓缩铀以换取美解除制裁。随后，最高领袖哈梅内伊及外长阿拉格齐却表态称，伊朗永远不会停止浓缩铀活动，并指责美方的要求“完全不合理”。
The Trump administration failed to make sufficient policy adjustments against Iran or reach an internal consensus. Its present seeking of reconciliation with Iran stems mainly from rational calculation and transaction, rather than an inversion of its perceptions toward Iran. There is a deep-rooted hostility against Iran in the US, which preordains the great limitation on the adjustment of the Trump administration's diplomatic strategy toward Iran. Even with the intention to ease relations with Iran, Trump himself would face strong domestic opposition.
特朗普政府对伊政策调整并不充分，且内部缺乏共识。当前特朗普政府寻求与伊朗改善关系，主要出于理性算计与交易目的，并不代表其对伊朗态度发生彻底改观。美国国内对伊朗抱有深刻的敌意，这决定了特朗普政府对伊朗外交策略的调整有很大局限性。特朗普本人即使希望缓和与伊朗关系，也会面临强大的国内反对压力。
On the Iranian side, its senior political leadership has neither reached a consensus nor formed a unified position on the issues related to contact and detente with the US. Iran has been engaging with the US with abiding distrust. Based on the long experience of dealing with the US, the pragmatic conservatives believe that the US is not worthy of trust given its repeated acts of breaking promises. In light of the recent continuous extreme pressure on Iran by the US, Iran's senior leadership has been shifting from cautiously optimistic to negative response to the nuclear talks.
伊朗方面，伊朗政治高层在与美国接触及缓和相关议题上尚未达成共识且未形成一致立场。伊朗一直带着极度不信任的态度与美接触。保守务实派根据长期与美国打交道的经验，认为美国存在多次违背承诺行为，因此不值得信任。鉴于近期美国仍持续不断对伊极限施压，伊朗高层对核谈判的态度从谨慎乐观开始转向消极应对。
The fundamental reason underlying the lack of effective progress in the US-Iran nuclear talks resides in the deep distrust besetting the two sides, resulting in unwillingness to make concessions or compromises. The US believes that lifting sanctions on the ground of allowing Iran to maintain the ability to produce nuclear weapons would be tantamount to uncaging the tiger. Iran, on the other hand, perceives that a promise to give up its nuclear capability completely in exchange for the lifting of sanctions will probably incur another betrayal by the US. This distrust between the two sides has been undermining the willingness and basis for negotiations over the past few months.
美伊在核谈判问题上之所以无法取得有效进展，本质上是因为双方对彼此抱有高度不信任感，因此在核心议题上都寸步不让、难以妥协。美国认为如果在允许伊朗继续拥有制造核武器能力的前提下解除制裁，无异于“放虎归山”；而伊朗则认为以完全放弃核能力换取美国解除制裁的承诺，很可能会遭到美国的再次背叛。双方对彼此的这种不信任不断消解着过去几个月两国谈判的意愿与基础。
In addition, it is improper to ignore Israel's influence on the US. In recent days, the Trump administration appears to have excluded Israel from its Middle East strategy intentionally. Instead of submitting to Trump's Middle East policy, Israel is deliberately aggravating tensions and even showing signs of direct military action against Iran. Israel seemingly reminds Trump with its tough stance that Israel would not hesitate to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities if it did not abandon uranium enrichment activities. However, there is a slim chance that Israel will use force against Iran without the help of the US, but Israel may leverage certain events to amplify the "Iran threat", thereby inducing a pullback in the US policy toward Iran.
除此之外，以色列对美国的影响力也不容忽视。最近一段时期，特朗普政府似乎有意将以色列排除在其中东战略之外。以色列不但没有屈从于特朗普的中东政策，反而有意激化矛盾，甚至表露出对伊朗直接动武的迹象。以色列的强硬立场似乎在提醒特朗普，如果伊朗不放弃浓缩铀活动，以色列将毫不犹豫地摧毁其核设施。没有美国的帮助，以色列对伊朗动武的可能性不大，但以色列或许会借助某些事件加大渲染“伊朗威胁”，从而引发美国对伊朗政策的回调。
(The author is Han Jianwei, an associate professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University)
（作者系上海外国语大学中东研究所副教授韩建伟）
Editor's Note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
